We are about to descend a meteorological cliff, with little hope of return.
A transition to far cooler and wetter conditions, with no chance of reversal.
Even worse... this transition is perfectly normal for this time of the year.
Want proof? Below are the latest temperature forecasts for several locations around our region.
In Seattle, temperatures will rise into the low 70s on Thursday and Friday before crashing down into the upper 50s next week. And staying there.
At Snoqualmie Pass in the Cascades? The big cooling takes them down into the 40s.
Consider the climatological temperatures at Seattle (SeaTac) over the year (see below). Red indicates the record highs, and brown shows the average temperature range (highs and lows).
Record temperatures reach into the 90s during the first half of the month, but after October 18 such warm temperatures simply don't occur.
This amazing transition around mid-October is made clearer by an expansion of the above figure for October.
Solar radiation reaching the surface declines rapidly during the month, and increasing weather system activity moves into the region as the jet stream strengthens and moves southward (see average color radiation below).
So enjoy the warmth of the next two days. This may well be the last 70F+ highs you experience for many months.
It's the same in eastern WA only sometimes more extreme. We recently went from 80F to 32F in just a few days. The first week of Oct here is notorious for faking us out with June temps. Fortunately we got a couple more days of 'Indian summer' then it's all over until next May.
ReplyDeleteFascinating how around the middle of October the record highs start to drop off so much, while three weeks later the record lows do the same. By the middle of November we’re quite wet and cold.
ReplyDeleteRIP summer. I often find myself dancing with the weather in late October. I don't know of a surer way to bring the rain then to be putting a roof on a building.
ReplyDeleteSo far just 0.06" of October precipitation at my Key Peninsula location. Looking forward to the pattern change,
ReplyDeleteMy southern Vancouver Island home seems to be far enough north of Sea-Tac for the cooldown and damp-down to happen a week or so earlier. Even a light rain (so far this season our few rains have all been light) now leaves a lasting dampness on the ground unlike the case throughout summer and September.
ReplyDeleteYep. The bears have the right idea: Just hibernate, and wake up in April. Of course I expect a brief reprieve in January when I plan to go to Kauai.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the temperature curve, yes, the decrease per month in fall is more rapid that the increase per month in spring. This seems to be more true in the NW compared to other parts of the country where the curve is more symmetrical.
I've lived here for 35 years. I complain about the weather every November. I'm just as predictable.
ReplyDeleteThat "meteorological cliff" sure looks dry. Dp you think it's the super El Nino delaying the fall rains this year?
ReplyDeleteEntering into the rain abyss also. Leading up to a climax around thanksgiving before petering out
ReplyDeleteHopefully we get some real rain soon, I just did some digging here NW of Olympia , dug a hole 8 feet deep, first 4 feet were powder dry the next 4 feet wasn't much much better, Its scary dry and with no rain in sight.
ReplyDeleteI believe I mowed the yard about 6-7 times this spring before summer relieved me of my duties. On Monday, I got the opportunity for the first autumn mowing, and there's a real chance it might be the only one of the season. I'm torn, because while I want the weather to be good, that will just increase the likelihood of needing to do another mowing.
ReplyDeleteAgree. This meteorological change appears to be missing a key element: rain. Maybe that changes if the jet stream dips down here from SE Alaska as it typically does by now. Without that we are a cooler California.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro shows cumulative rainfall in Seattle at 6+ inches through the end of the month, and much, much more in the mountains. Can’t wait to hear people complaining that it neeeever, eeeever stops raining here in a few weeks🙄
ReplyDeleteHope the whiskey holds y'up this winter!
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