Monday, November 3, 2008

Weather and Elections

An article in the Journal of Politics analyzed the influence of weather on elections...and the effect is significant. Heavy rain and snow really lessens voting and it appears that such inclement weather influences Democratic voters more than Republicans. The weather map you see shows precipitation, pressure, and temperature at about 5000ft (which meteorologists like to look at). Most of the country will be dry or experience very light rain at most...and most of the eastern 2/3rd of the U.S. will be unusually warm. Key battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida will be nice--so that is good for Obama. Virginia will be wet..good for McCain. Our area..the Pac NW will have rain in the am...but we are firmly in the Democrat that won't make a difference for the Presidential race.
Today will have some mixed showers and sun...with more steady rain tonight...followed a day of sun and showers tomorrow.


michael gross said...

Re your forecasts: while the likelihood of precipitation is important, there are many people who consider the presence or absence of sun breaks even more important (OK, maybe not many, maybe I'm the only one).

To be specific, I'm interested in their number (2 in a day, or several), duration, and breadth (more clearly, the percent of cloud cover).

That is a forecast that called for brief morning sunbreaks, or significant breaks throughout the day, would be quite helpful in deciding whether or not to get out of bed that day.

Mark P said...

I hope Obama supporters in VA will battle the rain, and come out in cascades to vote for him !!!!

michael gross said...

As in Eats Shoots and Leaves, there should have been a comma after "that is".