October 27, 2022

A Cold, Wet Month Ahead and Maybe More of the Same Through Midwinter

 If you enjoy cold, cloudy, wet weather, with plenty of snow in the mountains, you will love the next month.

The latest extended forecast from the most skillful global prediction system in the world (the European Center) is going for much wetter than normal conditions for most of the western U.S., with MUCH wetter than normal conditions west of the Cascade crest.  Good to see California getting a piece of this!


And temperatures over the western U.S. during the next 30 days will be colder than normal (see below).

Cold and wet can only mean one thing:  lots of snow.  Below is the predicted total for the same period.  

Skiing by Thanksgiving at Whistler, Baker, and Crystal Mountain?  It is possible.


What about the long term?  

La Nina conditions--which bring colder and wetter than normal conditions to our region, particularly after the New Year-- have strengthened and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center keeps La Nina around into mid-winter (see below). 


In short, after a cold, wet spring and a dry, warm summer/early fall, a cold/wet start of the winter season looks probable.  

Good news for replenishing our reservoirs and establishing an early snowpack.


11 comments:

  1. One place that doesn't seem to have an issue with snowpack is Mt. Baker. I think that place gets more snow than almost anywhere else in the continental US.

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    1. Mt Baker holds the world record for most snow in a season, total snow pack and mist in a month ...1997?

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  2. Maybe this winter will end up cold and wet, but at least in the Wenatchee area, the past La Nina winters of this century have not been. The average winter temperature of the six La Nina winters of this century (2000-01, 2007-08, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2020-21,2021-22) at the Tree Fruit Research Center in Wenatchee, is about 0.5 degree above normal. The coldest month was January, 2008 at -4.2 below normal, the warmest was January 2021 at +6.8 above normal. Half the La Nina winters were above normal, half below, but not by much. Precipitation for the six La Nina winters was 79% of normal, with only one winter, 2020-21, being above normal.

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  3. Forgot to say this is December thru February data.

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  4. 7 feet of snow at Washington Pass. Do I read that map correctly?
    That will shut the North Cascades Highway for the season.
    Mid-November is a common time for this.

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  5. I measured 0.85" of rain overnight at my house in Bellingham and yesterday had a 37mph wind gust.

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  6. You've explained in detail in other posts why the European Center does better at weather than the US. So wouldn't it make sense in the long run for the US & other countries to coordinate their funding for meteorology with the European Center to eliminate waste and redundancy? I mean we do this for the space station and it's made it wildly successful compared to what a country can do on its own. So why not work together on the weather too?

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  7. I feel these projections will be met in the next 10 days. Just a feeling.

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  8. 37mph wind gust on 10/27 and 0.85" of rain between Thursday night and Friday morning at my house in Bellingham.

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  9. Yup! What a difference a week makes here near 'Baker. Our first really hard frost in Glacier has already occurred - (drum roll) - 28.8 F in the valley, just under 1000 ft (Oct 23) - and I've measured 3.03" of rain, not including sprinkles that bracketed the week. 'Lots of fresh snow in the mountains, and the powder-lovers are waxing their boards and speed gear with true passion. What's surprising is that the trees haven't dropped all their leaves; but that won't take long.

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