This Wedneday, October 12, marks the 60th anniversary of the extraordinary Columbus Day Storm, the most intense, damaging storm to hit the Pacific Northwest during the last century.
This blog will tell its story, describe the extreme winds and damage, tell you about the quality of the forecasts, and even examine whether global warming will change the frequency of such storms.
Note: I will be giving an online public talk on the big blow if you are interested (details later).
The steeple of Campbell Hall in Monmouth, Oregon
The extreme nature of the storm is hard to exaggerate.
It spread destruction from northern California to British Columbia, with winds exceeding 100 mph in many locations and over 130 mph in several locations.
It was a storm equivalent in strength to a category 3 hurricane. But bigger.
46 people died and 317 required hospitalization. Power was taken out for nearly the whole region. Millions of trees were toppled. Flooding occurred in California. If it hit today, it would easily cause tens of billions of dollars in damage.
A bronze statue called "Circuit Rider" was toppled by winds in Salem.
Although not a hurricane when it hit the Northwest (because it was not a tropical storm), the Columbus Day Storm started as Typhoon Frieda in the western Pacific. This tropical storm then moved northward, transformed into a midlatitude storm driven by differences in temperature (also known as a midlatitude cyclone), and then swung northward into our region on October 12 (see map below).
Several of the most intense storms hitting the Northwest have started as typhoons: many appear to retain some of the inner core intensity and substantial surrounding moisture of their tropical origins.Now, let's look at some surface weather maps during the storm's landfalling final day (the maps show sea level pressure).
At 4 PM the day before, the Columbus Day (CD) storm was due west of central California, while another (quite powerful) storm was offshore of our region. Parenthetically, many of our great storms have siblings that move through the days before and after.
By 10 AM on October 12th, the CD storm had revved up into a monster (with a central pressure around 960 hPa), bringing intense rain to California and hurricane-force gusts to the northern CA and southern OR coasts.
By 10 PM, the intense low was crossing the northwest tip of the Olympic Peninsula. Extreme winds were hitting western Washington at this time.
When the storm was of Oregon, its lowest pressure was around 955 hPa; most years our deepest storm is only around 980 hPa.
Equivalent to the central pressure of a category 3 hurricane:
The maximum winds during the storm are shown below, courtesy of Dr. Wolf Read. Gusts to around mph in Renton and Bellingham. 116 mph in Portland, 127 mph in Corvallis and over 135 mph on the coast.
At Pt. Blanco, on the central Oregon coast, the winds got to 150 mph sustained, with gusts to 179 mph, before the anemometer disintegrated.
The Forecast
This intense storm was poorly predicted the day before.
As proof, here is a page from the Seattle Times on October 11th, which noted a partly cloudy day forecast in the interior and gale-force winds along the coast. Forecasters expected a minor coastal blow, but nothing like the hurricane-force winds that hit the entire region.
It is easy to understand why the forecasts were problematic that day.
These were the days before weather satellites when meteorologists only received a few scattered ship reports over the Pacific. Only during the final morning were there enough coastal reports to suggest a mega-storm was approaching.
Here is the actual surface chart produced by some forecasters at the Portland Weather Bureau office at 5 AM on October 12
As you may know, I do weather and climate modeling/prediction as part of my day job, and I asked two of my staff (Rick Steed and David Ovens) to rerun the forecast for the Columbus Day storm using a modern prediction system and at high resolution. Computer forecast models were primitive in those ancient days--could we do better with modern tools?
The results are shown below. We were able to get an impressive storm, but not nearly as intense as the real thing (which was about 20 hPa deeper) and with a track too far eastward compared to the real thing.
Our deficient results are not surprising: without weather satellites and other modern observing systems over the ocean, there were not enough data to properly describe weather conditions over the Pacific. Even more weather prediction models can not forecast weather skillfully without sufficient data to start with.
Has Global Warming Intensified Major West Coast Storms? Will it?
The answer appears to be no.
First, since global warming has been going on for several decades, we should already note some impact on storm strength---if a connection exists.
Below are the maximum winds each year in Seattle and Portland during the past half-century or so. There is no evidence that winds are increasing...in fact, it looks like a slight decrease has occurred.
This trend is consistent with the observation that we haven't had a big Pacific windstorm in a while, with the last major event being the 2006 Hanukah Eve storm.
Finally, in 2015 the UW Climate Impacts group completed a study that examined regional climate model projections to determine whether global warming would increase the maximum winds of the region. This study, of which I was one author, found no increase in maximum winds for the region as the planet warmed.
Number of times per year winds hit a high-wind threshold
over the region. No trend
There are reasons why strong Pacific storms are not increasing, including the reduction of horizontal temperature gradient under global warming.
Not all weather becomes more extreme as the earth warms slowly, something that may surprise after the relentless hype in the media.
My Talk on the Storm on Wednesday
I will be giving a presentation on the Columbus Day event on Wednesday at the department's Dynamics/Climate seminar at 3:30 PM (zoom information: https://washington.zoom.us/j/99470540010)
And I recently gave a talk on the storm at the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (found here). I was joined by Professor Wolf Read of Simon Fraser University.
ReplyDeleteCitizens of Yakima {32} and Wenatchee {40}, the two stations on the fair side if the Cascades, would hardly have noticed.
I was 12 living in the Bay Area. It was a IMPRESSIVE storm even that far south. I do remember watching the fruit trees swaying in the wind.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if I remember this correctly, but the forecast was for a storm headed to the Bay Area. I think everybody underestimated the strength of the storm.
My parents were very tied in the weather and I believe it was their decision to sit tight that weekend.
But time, blurs all memories. It would be interesting to see the Bay Area forecasts for that weekend.
In 1968 I was working for the US Forest Service on the Naches Ranger District. The district packer, Bus Richey, and I were on horses near Fish Lake. The lake sits on the crest of the Cascades and water flows out of each end. Carlton Creek flows west and The Bumping River flows east. The perfect situation for a Gap Wind to blow through. Just east of the lake there was a blow down area of large timber across the trail that had been cleared. Bus told me that the blow down was caused by the Columbus Day storm. He said another packer, Cliff Richey and he had cleared it. Cliff started on one end and Bus started on the other end.
ReplyDeleteIt was very impressive riding through it. It was a hall way with butt ends of old growth timber shoulder high even setting on horse back.
I've worked on trails in the Cascades, but not that specific location. There are places where wind starts into a valley and is increasing constricted as the terrain narrows. Blowdowns are impressive. I've seen a few and I would not want to be anywhere close.
DeleteIn wilderness areas those trees have to be cleared with crosscut saws. Nature provides us with lots of fun things to do out there.
John, here's the coordinates for Fish Lake, 46 45 42.3, -121 25 54.14 . Plug these into Google Earth then rotate the image and tilt it so you can look right down the Venturi.
DeleteSome trivia. Supreme court Justice William O. Douglas organized a trail ride into the upper Bumping River valley in August the year after the storm to see the grandeur of the area . He invited Forest Service officials, wilderness advocates etc. When they got to Deep Creek they came to an area of blow down that the Forest service had already punched a road into so they could salvage the blow down. Long story short, in 1984 President Regan signed the Wilderness act designating the area the William O. Douglas Wilderness.
I was 8. A dark night only broken by flickering candles as we huddled in the kitchen away from the windows as the wind roared outside. The memory is still vivid today. (Vancouver, WA)
ReplyDeleteSounds a lot like the storm that hit Alaska last month.
ReplyDeleteIt is good to be aware of historical events like this for the sake of individual preparedness.
ReplyDeleteAs I far as I can see, it was pretty comparable to Hurricane Sandy or perhaps even a bit worse: many areas saw gusts in the 80-90 mph range, although I don't see reports from Sandy of the 100+ mph gusts that parts of Oregon saw during the Columbus Day Storm. It did achieve those speeds (sustained) while over Cuba.
Trees are one obvious concern, and happily, the large trees on my property are downwind from my home, relative to the prevailing winds. If there were storm forecast with winds from the opposite direction, I'd probably have the family stay downstairs in the room furthest from the trees.
Big storms like this can also lead to flooding or mudslides in the usual areas.
And of course, there are the power outages to prepare for. I've been impressed that the longest outage I've had in the last 15 years or so has been maybe 36 hours (I experienced several longer outages growing up). But after Hurricane Sandy hit New England, over 1/4 of those who lost power didn't have power until at least day 5. That certainly could happen here.
Groceries often were unavailable for a similar time frame, and gasoline for even longer. It is good to prepared to hunker down at home with an adequate supply of non-perishable food and an alternative means of cooking.
I was in Corvallis, Oregon during the storm and was foolish enough to walk home several blocks from the chemistry building at OSU, but fortunately wasn't hit by flying debris large enough to injure me. Downed trees blocked all the roads out of Corvallis, and the sounds of chain saws were heard all day for several days after the storm. It was an unforgettable experience.
ReplyDeleteI was a month into 8th grade in Issaquah Junior High that October. The morning of the storm the buses were running normal schedules and classes proceeded normally. Wind began to rise late morning and in the afternoon news of a storm began to make the rounds. During the Depression era and Post WW II a large covered grandstand and municipal building had been built in Issaquah at Memorial field. From the 3 story Junior High Building (destroyed by the 1965 earthquake) we watched the wind rip the roof off the grandstand and carry it about 50 yards before it flipped over and stayed on the field. Cottonwood trees could be seen toppling near Issaquah Creek. The municipal building was heavily damaged and never used as intensely again. Years later it was demolished and replaced. Trees were down everywhere and buses weren't running regular schedules so many of us found our own way home. My parent's farm was north of Issaquah and my sister and older brothers and I had walked it many times so we did again, avoiding down power lines, limbs and trees. I was told at the time that the wind had exceeded 100 in Issaquah, but that was so anecdotal I have no way of knowing that it's true. It wasn't until the 1993 Inauguration Day and 2006 Hanukah Eve Storms that I saw winds pushing into the territory of Columbus Day.
ReplyDeleteInteresting on the placement of the Columbus day storm on the reenactment with the high resolution model. This shows we can still get caught off guard and that storms that approach from the south can really bring a blow if they come in a bit deeper and move up the coast instead of moving inland.
ReplyDeleteVery gratifying, to see your blog on this storm--the greatest meteorological event I have ever experienced...I am now 75, and was 15, when I found myself struggling to deliver my Seattle Times newspapers along my paper route, in the North Green Lake area. I am also so glad you know Prof. Wolf Read, whose "Storm King" blog has zeroed in on many of our NW nasty storms over the last 100+ years. He solicited folks to make comments as to their experiences on that terrifying day...and is (was?) going to publish a book containing those comments...I am still waiting for that!..His blog is extremely detailed, and well worth the perusal of anyone interested in the surprisingly volatile storm history of our region.
ReplyDeleteJohn--go to the "Storm King" blog by Prof. Wolf Read...all of those types of questions are well-answered. For 1962, there actually was some decent reporting from various weather stations. But, as Cliff Maas says, there were no weather satellites back then, to help predict this crazy, powerful storm.
ReplyDeleteThanks for this forum. I wanted and hoped for a ZOOM meeting for the storm, but had hoped for something on par with the 50th anniversary. I knew I ought to have done it myself -- gotten people together for a talk online. In person, 10 years ago, they only could accommodate about 300-400 people at the event at OMSI. I couldn't even go because my husband was in the hospital, even though he told me to go -- traveling to Portland would have taken long via Greyhound. I was 3, going to be 4 in a month, when the storm harmed us. My mom's tree, a Mother's Day gift from us was broken at the trunk and the top blown down the street. Our beloved cat lost in the storm. That is too hard a blow for a child. Yet, for the next 10 years, people didn't even want to talk about it, nor remember it, at least those around me. I wrote to a weatherman to ask him to speak at school or somewhere and he did. But I wanted it acknowledged as a hurricane, despite the regional term being confined to the East Coast or whatever. At least it is now called a cyclone or bomb cyclone or extra-tropical typhoon
ReplyDeleteYes, Prof Read, in his amazing summary of serious local storms, commented that Mother Nature does not care how we define storms..and he specifically indicated that the CDS of 1962 was really more of an "outlier" in our weather history--not easily defined, or even understood. It is likely our region gets hit by a storm like that, maybe once in 100-200 years...I feel sad for the victims of that storm, but glad to have been "privileged" to be alive to witness such a mind-blowing event!
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