It is often useful to get the big picture when understanding the meteorological situation, particularly when thinking about the potential of climate change.
The Northwest has experienced a very warm/dry period of late. There is no doubt about that.
But just the opposite is occurring east of the Rockies, where record cold and snow are occurring.
A number of locations had daily record lows and some locations MONTHLY record lows (see below).
So how can the eastern portion of the country have a historic coldwave while the Northwest is much warmer than normal?
The answer is that the upper-level wave pattern became amplified, with a ridge of high pressure over the west and a trough of low pressure over the east (see upper-level map for this morning at 5AM)
There is no evidence that such amplification has anything to do with global warming.
Is the globe 1-2F warmer due to increasing greenhouse gases? Quite possibly.
But does global warming explain the extreme cold and warm events that the U.S. has experienced recently?
The answer is clearly no, with a deep scientific literature to support this statement.
Michigan's UP had strong winds, cold, and snow (18" ?); so says a friend vie email.
ReplyDeletePeople zipping around in their gas-guzzlers while screaming out the car window: "CLIMATE CHANGE!" is baffling to me.
ReplyDeleteHas "climate change" become the New Aether?
Maybe Olympia should make it a law that anytime a person says "climate change" then they immediately have to describe their own personal activities to lessen "global warming". Me, I haven't owned a car in 20 years. My utility company tell me they are over 90% hydroelectric.
Emissions are bad, no doubt about that, as a former amateur after-work endurance athlete when I lived in Seattle
So much "hot air" from people not willing to make the slightest sacrifice against the very calamity they rage about
Has the frequency of record breaking temperatures increased? Historical data shows it has happened in the past, but what is the trend for record breaking temperatures and weather events?
ReplyDeleteIt's a little unclear from what you've written in the past and in this post, but is your general assertion that the only effect climate change has is to increase the temperature in any given place by 1–2°F above where it would ordinarily be at that moment in time were it not for the effects of climate change?
ReplyDeleteGenuinely curious - how do you square the repeated patterns of more extreme weather with your ongoing claim that climate change doesn't explain each individual event? The IPCC made very clear that anthropogenic climate change has “led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial times”.
ReplyDeleteI've been in Washington state for almost 15 years at this point after being born and raised in California, and I genuinely can't recall ever seeing persistent summer smoke in my life until about 6-7 years ago. We've also now had an ongoing string of "historic" weather events, like last summer's insane heat, last winter's low temps and snow in many places, and now this record-breaking October situation this year.
I can understand the issue of individual events being sensationalized as a harbinger of climate doom, but it feels impossible to not acknowledge a pattern here.
There is no pattern. Windstorms are not increasing in the NW. Heavy rain is not increasing. Severe convection is not increasing. Cold waves are not increasing. The smoke used to be MUCH worse. We are slowly warming up...that is the main trend.
DeleteWhile extreme events would occur regardless of climate change, don't the models show that global warming may amplify these events, or make them somewhat more frequent? Seem to make sense to me that more energy in the atmosphere would create a more dynamic system overall. (But I am no climate expert!)
ReplyDeleteNo...it doesn't appear to work that way. Easterly winds are the key for these events and such winds will weaken under global warming.
DeleteSo events like the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" might become less frequent in the future? That would be good for California!
DeleteThank you for the explanation!
ReplyDeleteJust ghastly and still getting worse. As you say the NW is now the air pollution capital of the nation. Even California has it much better.
ReplyDeleteThere was a time when I thought that humans had a near monopoly on pollution. The last few summers have shown me how wrong I was. I only hope that this is not actually the real norm.
Meanwhile almost the entire East enjoys "good" air.
Thanks for being a voice of reason in a world full of hype and misinformation
ReplyDeleteThis longitudinal asymmetry in temperatures in North America is a textbook example of what can occur when the polar vortex becomes wavier and extends further south - as shown by the National Weather Service.
ReplyDeleteNWS Polar Vortex
Some, including Cliff, question whether rapid warming and ice melt in the Arctic is a cause of disruptions to the polar vortex. This has been the subject of much discussion in the scientific literature.
< a href="https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2021/09/02/polar-vortex-extreme-winter-weather/7021630610637/">Study links polar vortex disruption with extreme winter weather
But no reason to reject (vs question) a connection between global warming and the current weather over the continent.
> There is no evidence that such amplification has anything to do with global warming.
ReplyDeleteI'm not arguing either way, it's just that your posts so often have this dismissive tone when it comes to the subject. Wouldn't it have been more genuine to say "we don't know if this has anything to do with global warming?"
(Otherwise, I very much enjoy reading your posts - thank you so much. I don't mean to come across as a jackass.)