October 14, 2022

How Far into the Future Can We Forecast Skillfully? And the Big Weather Change Ahead.

 My new podcast tells the story of the upcoming smoky warm weekend and the profound weather change next weekend.

Yes, a return of rain and clouds. Cooler temperatures.   Lessening of the irritating smoke.

To get you in a proper soggy mood, here is the 72-h total prediction ending Monday morning produced by the highly skillful European Center model.  

Yikes.  2-4 inches in the Cascades.  That will be the death knell for many of the fires.  Streamflows will increase.    All good.

And I am afraid that our run of wonderfully warm temperatures will be over, with high temperatures in western Washington only rising into the lower 60s from next weekend onward.  

Yes, you will need to find your rain jackets and sweaters again.

To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service.

Some major podcast servers:

 HTML tutorial HTML tutorial
Like the podcast? Support on Patreon 


Announcement:  I will be doing a special online (zoom) session with my Patreon supporters at 10 AM Saturday.  I will discuss the extended forecast and answer your questions.


  1. Whether it's too warm or too cold, there will always be someone complaining. Take it from someone who's lived over fifty years in IL, the warm here is rarely that hot, while the cool is rarely that cold.

  2. This Monday? Or Monday the 24th? I'll believe it when I see it.

    1. The label in the upper right of the rainfall prediction says Mon 24 Oct, so that's for next weekend

  3. The endless summer has been fun for some, and I have enjoyed the sun on my back as I plant, weed, and water, but everything needed watering during the last month and for some of us with big gardens, dragging those 100’ hoses gets old. And the smoke, yeah, that too gets old. Glad to hear the rains will return but will miss the warmth. Thanks for keeping us updated….

  4. For a lot of nursery owners in the NW, Rufus at OVS is their go-to weather guy. And Rufus is saying we won't see rain until the 28th, earliest. This is largest divergence I've seen between his forecast and others, will be an interesting test.

  5. I'm a big fan of the Cormac McCarthy's book (and movie) The Road. This lack of weather is starting to give off the vibe portrayed in the movie. Imagine a stubborn high pressure system that sits on top of us for 8-12 months straight, and I think Cormac's vision would be fully realized.


Please make sure your comments are civil. Name calling and personal attacks are not appropriate.

Is Freedom of Speech at Risk at the University of Washington?

Freedom of speech is the essential foundation for a democratic society.  It is also a requirement for a functioning university.   Freedom of...