This Year is 2050 in the Pacific Northwest

We went through a meteorological time machine this year.  You experienced the meteorology of 25-50 years into the future.

For example, we have lived through a summer with the snowpack expected in 2050.  

The second-lowest snowpack over the past decades.

Let me prove this to you.  

Below is a plot of Pacific Northwest snowpack on April 1 (after the winter accumulation season) since 1984.  

Wow, we had the second-lowest snowpack in over 40 years. Roughly 50% of normal.

When would we expect such a reduction in snow based on global warming?   

Let us assume the RCP 4.5 global warming scenario, which is typically used by the research community these days.

Under this scenario, here are the April 1 snowpack predictions for the Puget Sound region.    Snowpack doesn't decline to as much as this year until the end of the century!

Same thing for the entire Pacific Northwest:

So this year provides a taste of the snowpack in roughly 75 years into the future, assuming nothing major is done about greenhouse gas emissions.

What about temperatures?   As shown below, it was much warmer than normal tduring the past year, roughly 2-4 F above normal in much of the area!

Again, comparing to a regional climate simulation, this is like being transported in time to around 2050.

This meteorological time travel is exhausting!  

The last year has experienced conditions that will be typical during the middle to latter parts of this century if global warming increases without change.

Now the controversial part of this blog.

Those suggesting that such warming represents the end of the world and an acute threat to our survival are simply wrong.

There was sufficient water for human consumption (see Lake Roosevelt Level behind Grand Coulee Dam below)

Blue is this year, red is average

Regional agriculture has done well, with most crops near normal.

Forest fire areas were modest, with most of the fires being in grass/range vegetation (which is little influenced by climate change).

Those claiming the climatological sky was falling were simply wrong. 

We need to do what we can to mitigate global warming, but it is not an emergency or an acute threat to humanity.

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Sunday for Patreon supporters. I plan to talk about the extended range forecasts and the strange conditions often apparent on super el nino years.

The Most Impressive Rain Shadow in the Nation!

When air approaches a mountain barrier, it is forced to rise and, in doing so, cools.  As the air cools, it has less ability to "hold" water vapor, and eventually the air becomes saturated, producing clouds and precipitation.   

On the lee side of the barrier, the air sinks and warms by compression, causing the relative humidity to drop, causing clouds to evaporate and ending any chance of precipitation

This dry area on the downstream side of terrain is called a rain shadow.

 Washington State is "blessed" with world-class rain shadows...one on the downslope (eastern) side of the Olympics and the other to the east of the Cascades.

According to all the AI queries I made, Washington has the most profound rain shadows around (see sample below).

This week was a great example.   

On Monday, there was a potent atmospheric river of massive amounts of water vapor  approaching Washington from the west.

As a result, the western side of local terrain experienced heavy precipitation, but the mountains produced a profound rain shadow downstream (see the precipitation totals over the past 72 h below).

3.5 inches on the windward (western) slopes of the Olympics and 0.04 inches on the lee (northeast) side of the barrier.  Wow.

That's roughly 85 times more on one side than the other.  Mama Mia!  That is a spicy rain shadow.

Here is a close-in look at the rain shadow action.    No wonder some folks like living in Port Townsend and Sequim! 

On Tuesday morning, the rain shadow was very apparent in the visible satellite image:

And the weather radars showed the profound impacts on rainfall.  Very nice rain shadow.

Some precipitation is coming in on Friday, but most of the precipitation and rain shadow action during the next few days will be over British Columbia:

Be proud.... one online source event even provided us with a medal!

__________________________________________

You are invited to attend a very interesting weather lecture for the general public on the UW campus. Open to the general public!

Title: What I Have Learned from Flying Through the Clouds

Speaker: Armin Sorooshian, The University of Arizona

Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026

Time: 7:00pm - 8:30pm

Location: Kane Hall 220

To register, use this link:

https://forms.gle/S5xWHUWhrqzexKtH9

Abstract

What is it like to fly through clouds in the name of science?

And why should we even fly expensive aircraft filled with scientific instruments in and out of clouds?

Aside from their natural beauty and ability to invoke our imagination, clouds play a critical role in regulating Earth's climate, influencing precipitation, and affecting air quality. A necessary ingredient to make clouds is particles (e.g., dust, smoke).

This talk will describe (with a lot of visuals) what it is like to spend hundreds of hours in the back of various types of airplanes flying in and out of clouds. Stories and examples will highlight the importance of this type of work for reasons ranging from public health to visibility and climate change.