Drought Misinformation

There have been several stories in the Seattle Times and some local media that have hyped and exaggerated the "drought" over Washington State.

For example, a few days ago, the Seattle Times had a big spread talking about drought for the Yakima River basin:

The lack of rain and snow forced farmers to tear out their apple orchards by the acre. Wine grapes are withering on the vine. Miles-long irrigation canals leak and crumble.

This basin is the face of Washington’s drought. This might be the driest year in recent memory, fresh on the heels of severe droughts last year and the year before..

They had a picture of Lake Keechelus that showed it being completely dry.

Very deceptive.  I went up there on Sunday and this is what I saw:

They took a picture of one of the lake flanks, which is always dry during this season---even during a normal year.  

This is not honest journalism.

The truth is that the Yakima Reservoir system is rapidly filling, and Yakima River levels are normal.  

Still believe the Seattle Times?  Let's look at the actual numbers.

Below is a plot of storage for the entire Yakima system over time, showing average values (red), last year (green), and this year (blue).

This year, we are WAY higher than last year and rapidly refilling.  

In fact, the current storage now is about the same as last year, ONE FEBRUARY 1.

What about the water flow in the critical Yakima River?   (see below)

The flow is now above normal, and the prediction is for it to stay that way.

The Seattle Times is making all kinds of serious drought claims, with a lot of hints about global warming being the cause.

But is precipitation really declining over time on the eastern slopes of the Cascades, the watershed area for the Yakima Basin?

Let's check, using the official NOAA climate division data.  

Below is a plot of October through August precipitation totals on the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

Both the last two years were below normal.  No doubt about that.  But other years were drier...some much drier.  

Importantly, there is no long-term trend toward drier conditions, which is a sign of climate change. 

 Climate change is not the origin of the last two dry years....it is natural variability.

This year is clearly going to be substantially moister than the last two years.

There is a critical issue that the Seattle Times and certain activists never consider:  

Is a drier-than-normal year really a big deal?

 For example, if the Yakima Valley region receives more precipitation than it really needs on average, is being down modestly a problem of any significance?

It turns out that the "drought" had very little impact on Yakima Valley agriculture:

• The 2025 Yakima Valley apple crop was large and high-quality, with a record-tying amounts.
• The 2025 Yakima Valley cherry crop was excellent, with a good-sized and high-quality harvest resulting from favorable weather conditions. The cherry season was particularly long this year.
• The 2025 Yakima Valley grape crop is expected to be a "standout vintage" for quality.

Bottom line:  the agricultural impacts of the "drought" were very minor for the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

In a future blog, I will take on the Seattle Times' claims about drought on the western side of the Cascades.    

But I can't help myself.  Here are the latest reservoir levels for Seattle

Precipitation has been a bit above normal over watershed

and reservoir levels are rising rapidly and are almost at normal levels

A Remarkable Mini Atmospheric River Hits Western Washington

Most of the time, atmospheric rivers--plumes of lower-atmospheric moisture from off the Pacific Ocean--are relatively wide and thus produce large amounts of precipitation over a broad region.

But on Friday, something relatively unusual occurred:   a very narrow "mini" atmospheric river was locked over our region for hours, producing a narrow band of intense precipitation over western Washington and into the Cascades.

You can really see it in the regional weather radar image for Friday morning (below).  Yellows indicate the heaviest precipitation.

The southwest-northeast plume of heavier rain was very evident.  Totally dry over the San Juans and the southern Cascades.

  

Consider the precipitation totals on Friday below (only values more than a third of an inch are shown).

You can clearly see the precipitation band; where the moisture plume was forced to rise by the central Cascades, 3-5 inches fell.

Local rivers have surged, some to near flood stage.  The black dots below show the rivers that are now experiencing MUCH above normal flow.

Ironically, this is the area that the wacky Drought Monitor graphic shows SEVERE DROUGHT.

The UW WRF model accurately predicted this moisture plume the day before.   Below is the prediction (for Friday morning) of water vapor flux (the amount of water vapor brought in by the wind).  Orange shows the highest amounts.    Not bad.   

The model precipitation total (through 4 PM Friday) was excellent:  here is the proof:

We have come very, very far in our ability to predict local weather.  Really stunning.

This is something the gloom and doom global disaster folks don't seem to understand:  we now have the ability to predict and prepare for severe weather.

My colleagues in the National Weather Service recognized the situation and put out a flood advisory yesterday morning for the moisture plume area.

For those of you (like the Seattle Times) who are worried about drought conditions and lack of water for our region, the plume of precipitation made a direct hit on Seattle's Tolt Reservoir, where almost four inches have fallen:

Reservoir levels are moving up rapidly as a result.

Apparently, this has gotten some folks nervous.

More rain is coming later Sunday and Monday. Sorry...this IS November.