Massive Mountain Snow and Flakes Down to Sea Level

For those worried about below-normal mountain snow, your worries are over..... a major snow dump is ahead.

You can also expect great skiing, and there could be some travel delays in the mountain passes. 

 Today, the Seattle NWS office noted the snowy threat....and they are right.

As I discussed regarding the windstorm forecast failure of last week, a good forecaster needs to examine the predictions of multiple forecast systems and ensembles of many forecasts from the same system in order to judge the reliability of a prediction.    

Let's do exactly that.

For the period ending Sunday at 11 AM, the European Center snowfall total is impressive,  reaching 4-5 feet.  You read that right.  5 feet.

The U.S. model has similar depths for that period.

Next, let's look at the ensemble of many snow forecasts at Stampede Pass (on the drier side of the Cascades) from the UW WRF model (only for the initial period through Thursday morning)--see below.

All the forecasts are calling for snow, which is steadily accumulating at that location.  We can have some confidence that substantial snow will fall there.

Now, let's turn to the latest run of the high-resolution UW WRF model.  Below are the snowfall totals through Thursday at 11 AM.  Up to three feet in the mountains!

Note there are a few areas of VERY, VERY light snow reaching near sea level.  This represents a few flakes mixed into the rain.

Temperatures will be relatively cool on Thursday morning at 4 AM, with very low freezing levels.  Here is a forecast map of the temperature around 2500 ft.  White and blue indicate below-freezing temperatures.   Precipitation will obviously be snow at that level (2500 ft) for the entire region, melting as it approaches sea level.  

I don't want to hype this (I don't run a YouTube channel 😋), but just don't be surprised to see some flakes on Thursday morning if you are near sea level.   The mountains will be hit hard...pretty much guaranteed.

A Very Moist California

Currently, there is no drought in California.  Zero.

The water outlook is very positive for the upcoming year across the Golden State, which this year will be the Green State.

California has massive reservoirs with multi-year storage capacity, unlike Washington State, which has not invested in sufficient storage capacity.  

Currently, ALL the California reservoirs are at above-normal levels, some at much above normal levels.

Soil moisture is well above normal (green colors)

California rivers?   Flowing at far above normal levels.  Some at record levels.

As you can imagine, this moist bounty is associated with higher than normal precipitation this fall, as illustrated by the percent of average precipitation for the water year so far (starting on October 1).

Some locations have received over 400% of normal precipitation.  Wow.

Snowpack has been building up rapidly during the past months and is now about 100% of normal for the central and southern Sierra Nevada.   But less than normal (around 50%) in the northern part of the state.

No problem...the reservoirs have stored the water that fell as rain versus snow in the northern sections, and more snow is on the way.

Looking forward, the situation only gets better.

Lots of rain is forecast through the middle of the month (see below)

And bountiful snow is predicted for central and northern California during this period...just what is needed to get snow water to average levels.

You would think the media and climate pundits would be happy with this water bounty.

But no, many outlets can not give up on the climate change impacts angle and are now pushing the "weather whiplash"  and "hygrometeorological whiplash" angles (see sample below). 

Some folks are never happy.

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions and talk in detail about the outlook for the remainder of the winter, and perhaps some controversial topics.