Wet California

 This has been a very wet fall in California.    A big contrast with last year.

Los Angeles this week

Consider the differences from normal of the precipitation during the last month for the western U.S. (below).   

Wow.  Some parts of southern California have gotten 800% of normal precipitation!  The entire state is considerably wetter than normal.

Many of the rivers are running MUCH higher than normal, as shown by the latest percentages below.   Crazy high river levels over coastal southern California.

What about the levels of the all-important California reservoirs?  The answer is below.

All are at or above normal.  Over southern California, some are full.

Last year, had one of the driest Octobers through December on record in Southern California, which contributed to the LA wildfire in early January.   

Some claimed this was the result of "climate change."

The atmosphere did not get the message.   Consider the precipitation from October 1 through November 19 over the past 50 years.  This year was the second wettest of the entire record!

This wet fall has led to the suppression of wildfires.    

So far this has been a VERY low wildfire year in California....something that is being given little attention in the media. 

Below are the statistics for wildfire acres year to date.    So far in 2025, about 525,208 acres have burned compared to a fire-year average of 1,315,947.

That is only about 40% of the recent average.

So, why has California been so wet?    The answer:  a persistent trough of low pressure off its coast.

For example, here is the anomaly map (difference from normal) for the heights at 500 hPa pressure (think of pressure around 18,000 ft). 

Purple and blue indicate lower than normal values....troughs of low pressure.    Right off of California!

Drought Misinformation

There have been several stories in the Seattle Times and some local media that have hyped and exaggerated the "drought" over Washington State.

For example, a few days ago, the Seattle Times had a big spread talking about drought for the Yakima River basin:

The lack of rain and snow forced farmers to tear out their apple orchards by the acre. Wine grapes are withering on the vine. Miles-long irrigation canals leak and crumble.

This basin is the face of Washington’s drought. This might be the driest year in recent memory, fresh on the heels of severe droughts last year and the year before..

They had a picture of Lake Keechelus that showed it being completely dry.

Very deceptive.  I went up there on Sunday and this is what I saw:

They took a picture of one of the lake flanks, which is always dry during this season---even during a normal year.  

This is not honest journalism.

The truth is that the Yakima Reservoir system is rapidly filling, and Yakima River levels are normal.  

Still believe the Seattle Times?  Let's look at the actual numbers.

Below is a plot of storage for the entire Yakima system over time, showing average values (red), last year (green), and this year (blue).

This year, we are WAY higher than last year and rapidly refilling.  

In fact, the current storage now is about the same as last year, ONE FEBRUARY 1.

What about the water flow in the critical Yakima River?   (see below)

The flow is now above normal, and the prediction is for it to stay that way.

The Seattle Times is making all kinds of serious drought claims, with a lot of hints about global warming being the cause.

But is precipitation really declining over time on the eastern slopes of the Cascades, the watershed area for the Yakima Basin?

Let's check, using the official NOAA climate division data.  

Below is a plot of October through August precipitation totals on the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

Both the last two years were below normal.  No doubt about that.  But other years were drier...some much drier.  

Importantly, there is no long-term trend toward drier conditions, which is a sign of climate change. 

 Climate change is not the origin of the last two dry years....it is natural variability.

This year is clearly going to be substantially moister than the last two years.

There is a critical issue that the Seattle Times and certain activists never consider:  

Is a drier-than-normal year really a big deal?

 For example, if the Yakima Valley region receives more precipitation than it really needs on average, is being down modestly a problem of any significance?

It turns out that the "drought" had very little impact on Yakima Valley agriculture:

• The 2025 Yakima Valley apple crop was large and high-quality, with a record-tying amounts.
• The 2025 Yakima Valley cherry crop was excellent, with a good-sized and high-quality harvest resulting from favorable weather conditions. The cherry season was particularly long this year.
• The 2025 Yakima Valley grape crop is expected to be a "standout vintage" for quality.

Bottom line:  the agricultural impacts of the "drought" were very minor for the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

In a future blog, I will take on the Seattle Times' claims about drought on the western side of the Cascades.    

But I can't help myself.  Here are the latest reservoir levels for Seattle

Precipitation has been a bit above normal over watershed

and reservoir levels are rising rapidly and are almost at normal levels

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