Why the LA Wildfires Have Little to With Drought or Climate Change

Some climate activists and media outlets are claiming the drought or climate change were major contributors to the recent wildfires around Los Angeles (see sample below)

These claims can easily be shown to be false.

Drought had little impact on the LA fires.

Climate Change had little impact.  

Let me provide the facts below.

The Fuels

The vegetative fuels for the fires were predominantly light fuels such as grasses and range vegetation.  To illustrate, consider the area where the Palisades fire started (below).

Most of these fuels are 1-10 hr fuels, which means they typically dry out after 1-10 hours of drying conditions.   

So even if the previous period had been wetter than normal, then a half-day of drying conditions would make them ready to burn.  The meteorological conditions immediately preceding the fires were so drying (very strong winds with  very low humidities) that even if it had rained the week before, the fire still would have occurred.

Consider a plot of the ten-hour fuel moisture at the nearby Topanga Canyon site over the past year (below).  Keep in mind that when the moisture level gets below 15% rapid fire spread is possible.  

Interestingly, even during every wet periods (such as the first part of 2024), fuel moisture levels return to burning-level fuel moisture between showers.

But grasses and bushes were not the only thing that burned.  Once the wildfires got to the homes or burning embers reaches the homes, the homes THEMSELVES supplied the fuels.  

One house ignited the next.   

This is very similar to the situations of others major urban wildfires, such as the Camp Fire (Paradise, CA), Lahaina (Maui), and the Marshal Fire (Superior, CO).   Homes flammability has little to do with weather conditions.   But poorly constructed homes (e.g., flammable roofs, no screens to stop embers moving into home spaces) are major problems.

There is No Trend of Less Precipitation in Southern California

Several media and other outlets suggested climate change associated dry conditions was a contributor to the LA wildfires.   First,  as noted above, the light fuels that brought the fires to the homes did not need a drought period to be sufficiently dried to burn.  

But even if drought had been important, there is no evidence than climate change could have contributed.   How can I be be so sure?  Because there is no long-term trend for less precipitation over the region.

Consider the trends of October 1 to January 6 precipitation at Los Angeles from 1950 through this year (see below).  The trend line is UPWARDS (brown line).   More rain, not less.  Yes, the past autumn was dry, but that is not climate but normal weather variability.

Not convinced?    Below is the annual precipitation of the region since the late 1940s.  

No downward trend.  And the last several years have been wetter than normal, which would contribute to more bountiful vegetative growth and thus more fire potential.

The LA Fires Were Associated with Strong-Dry Santa Ana Winds.  Such winds are predicted to WEAKEN, NOT Strengthen under global warming.

The LA wildfires were associated with very strong (up to 100 mph) and dry Santa Ana winds, which were generally from the northeast.

There is an extensive peer-reviewed science literature indicating that global warming will reduce the strength, intensity, and frequency of such Santa Ana winds.

It makes complete sense that global warming would weaken the Santa Ana winds.  

Such winds are driven by difference in pressure between inland high pressure and lower pressure to the south and west.  This high pressure is associated with low-level cool air (cool air is denser and heavier than warm air), which will be warmed due to global warming, thus reducing the pressure difference that drives the Santa Ana winds.

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Very strong video and photographic evidence indicated the Los Angeles Eaton fire, which resulted in the most deaths was due to a faulty power line.  Clearly, this transmission line was not de-energized even with the forecast of severe Santa Ana winds.

Increasing Winds Threaten Southern California

 Let me say at the onset, that the threat is nothing like last week, but strong winds today and powerful winds tomorrow are a serious problem....both in dealing with current fires and for starting new ones.

The National Weather Service is again putting out a strong message (see below),

These warnings need to be taken seriously, including shutting down the power to some areas.

Winds have accelerated today, with maximum gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains and 40-50 mph at lower elevations around Malibu (see below)

The strong wind are generally from the northeast, a classic of Santa Ana conditions.

Looking at the winds observed at Topanga Canyon near Malibu, one can see that the winds today are strong but not the equal of January 7-8.

Now lets examine the surface wind gust forecasts from the relatively high resolution HRRR model.  Keep in mind that the orange and reds indicate serious winds (50 mph and more).

Monday morning at 8 AM, shows strong winds reaching the coastal zone around Oxnard and Ventura.  Lesser but serious winds over northern Orange County.

By 10 AM Tuesday winds will be really cooking over the mountains and the lower elevation Ventura area.  The power should have been off for the previous 12 hours and for the rest of that day.

The region of strongest winds are within the responsibility of Southern CA Edison.   I hope they are more responsible than the Los Angeles folks.  That means Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs).   Their web page worries me....

Where and how did the Palisades Fire start?

 Important Update

Video evidence now available that the Eaton Fire (second biggest fire) was caused by a failing power transmission line:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/01/scenes-from-the-fire-line.php

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I am going to go out on a limb here.   There is strong evidence on exactly how and where the Palisade Fire started.  

We know that the fire started around 10:30 AM on Tuesday.  The GOES visible satellite image at that time is shown below and you can see the smoke plume from a single fire.

Using Google Maps we can easily identify that spot, just east of the Summit Community.  Below is a close-in shot of Summit, with the red arrow indicating roughly where the fire started started based on weather satellite smoke plume.

What do we find at the location where the fire started?   Powerlines.   Hung on wood structures.  I have several pictures of the location and the powerlines (see below)

Could these structures have handled the 80-100 mph winds that occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday?

You can see the powerlines extending down to the Summit neighborhood

Not convinced the powerlines did it?    There is other evidence.   The wonderful Ting power sensor network noted disturbances in the electrical power system in the neighborhood just prior to the fire.  

Finally, the fire initiation location does not look like an area where homeless encampments would be located. Encampments where camp fires would be found. 

The big question is why the Los Angeles power authorities did not de-energize all the power lines on the hills.   

A Relatively Dry Week Ahead--And Hope for Some California Rain

 It is not unusual to have a dry period during the second or third week of January and this will be the case this year.

The really wet systems tend to hit our region in mid-November, when the jet stream is directly aimed at our region (see probability of 0.10 inch below at SeaTac.   By mid-January, the jet stream often goes south of us, giving California much needed rain.

There will be serious drying this week with periods of sun for many Northwest locations.  

In fact, the weather.com forecast, which is quite good in general, has low probability of rain at SeaTac for the entire week (see below).   But there will be a price to pay for the dry conditions: relatively cool temperatures with plenty of frost away from the water and urban areas.

The origin of this dry boon is major West Coast ridging (high pressure) aloft and at the surface.  Below is the upper-level map at 500 hPa pressure (about 18,000 ft).  Red colors indicate higher than normal pressures/heights.   

Big/strong high pressure offshore, with produces sinking air over the Northwest and cool, northwesterly flow.   

The ridge is still there on Sunday morning at 4 AM, but has moved a bit closer.

By Monday morning the ridge is now crossing into BC-- a very dry pattern for the NW.

But look carefully to our south...a trough is developing over California, a change that could bring some cooling and light precipitation.

And then something very hopeful for California.  The trough moves westward off of Southern California and becomes a strong closed low.  This could bring some significant precipitation to portions of the wildfire zone.

Here is the predicted rainfall total through Friday morning.  Welcome precipitation over southern CA!  Not heavy, but enough to help.

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Did the LA Fire Disaster Have to Happen?

The weather forecasts for the Los Angeles area were nearly perfect for Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Very strong winds and low relative humidity were predicted by the high-resolution models (such as the NWS HRRR model), with forecast winds greater than 60 mph.    The region was bone-dry with little rain during the past months.

The NOAA's HRRR model prediction of wildfire potential on Monday indicated very high values in the Pacific Palisades region (see below).  It is hard to imagine doing better.

The National Weather Service put out an ominous forecast for the danger of wildfire. I blogged about it on Monday because I was quite concerned.

Yet with all this warning, a huge fire (actually three major fires) occurred with at least 5 deaths.  Over a thousand homes were destroyed.   The damage will easily be in the billions of dollars.  And the story is not over yet.

Did local governments take sufficient steps to stop this well-predicted disaster? Should Southern California Edison have been more aggressive in turning off power?

Update

The area of the Palisade fire this afternoon is shown below, with a current size of about 16,000 acres.

There are two other large fires, the Easton and Hurst fires.

The strong winds predicted on Monday were verified.. 

Below are the maximum wind gusts yesterday and today.  Up to 98 mph in the hills northeast of  Malibu yesterday and 89 mph today.

Also very low relative humidity.

Tuesday Max Winds

Wednesday Max Wind Through Noon

We know the fire started around 10:30 AM yesterday (Tuesday) not far from the Summit community (see map)

The big question is ignition.   What started the fire?

Considering the history of such fires,  the most probable origin is a sparking electrical line and the second is arson.  Eventually, we will know.

If a sparking electrical line was the cause, then Southern California Edison needs to explain why the power was not shut down to the entire threatened area.      As shown below, pictures from aircraft landing last night revealed that neighborhoods near the fires were still energized.  

Even Edison's own maps this AM showed that large areas near the fires (and strong winds) were still energized.

Just frustrating..... such good weather predictions and still such unfortunate outcomes.  We need to do better.

The National Weather Service Warns of a Catastrophic Windstorm in Los Angeles. Massive Preemptive Power Outages Planned

Because of my research on western U.S. wildfires, I keep close tabs on the weather in southern California.

So I was more than a little interested in the extreme warnings made by the National Weather Service for densely populated portions of southern California (see below).

They call this a LIFE THREATENING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDSTORM.  An EXTREME RISK demanding immediate action.   Folks are warned to stay away from windows.

Specifically, tomorrow and Wednesday morning, the NWS is predicting north to northeast winds of 30-45 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph.  They suggest the winds will blow down many trees and powerlines and that travel will be difficult.  Loose objects could be blown down and fires can be started and rapidly spread.  

So what is going on?   The large-scale models (such as the GFS forecast of sea-level pressure and surface winds shown below for 10 PM Tuesday) predict strong high pressure over Nevada and unusually low pressure over southern Arizona, producing unusually strong northeasterly winds between them (wind speeds indicated by color shading).

To better check out the forecast, the best place to turn is the high-resolution NOAA/NWS HRRR model.

By tomorrow (Tuesday) morning the HRRR model predicts 50-60 mph winds over the mountains north of LA

These winds strengthen during the day, reaching 70 mph over the hills by 4 PM.

Ominously, the crazy strong NE winds are predicted to descend to lower elevations overnight, particularly near Malibu, where the fires occurred several weeks ago (4 AM Wednesday is shown).

And the situation remains very serious at 8 AM Wednesday.

Folks, this wind event has the potential to produce major wildfires, and as a result, Southern California Edison is planning massive power shut-offs the next day (see map below). The yellow circles with the bell symbols are where they plan on having Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs). Tens of thousands of customers will lose electricity in the hope of preventing powerlines from starting fires. 

Finally, let me note that this event is very, very unusual for this time of the year. 

 I can show this by displaying the heights and winds at 925 hPa (about 780 meters above sea level).  You can see the low over southeast Arizona.  The shading is something called the standardized anomaly from climatology (sorry).  All you need to know is that the light gray areas indicated the winds were essentially unprecedented. 

Horse Manure, Climate Change, and Nuclear Energy

The "Great Manure Crisis" of the late 19th century offers some serious lessons for those worried about the "existential threat" of global warming from CO2 emissions.   

A predicted crisis that never occurred because of new technology.

Just before the dawn of the 20th century, there was desperate talk about the huge accumulation of horse manure on the streets of major world cities.  Not only was rising levels of horse poop inhibiting travel, but it threatened to become a major health hazard.  For example, New York City had 150,000 horses, each producing 15-30 pounds of manure daily.  And yes, tens of thousands of gallons of urine.

Extrapolating the problem, not unlike current climate activists projecting the effects of global warming during the coming century, the Times of London in 1894 predicted: "in fifty years, every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure."  People were encouraged to travel less, avoid unnecessary trips, work at home, and collect the refuse their animals produced.   

Sounds familiar?

You can also imagine the stories in the Seattle Times (then known as the Seattle Daily Times) if some wealthy Seattle foundation had given them funds for a "Health Lab":

This terrible poop crisis never happened.  Why?  

Because of a new transportation technology, powered by the internal combustion engine.  

A good lesson for us today: it is problematic to extrapolate problems into the future assuming technologies will remain static.

Today we have a new crisis dominating the media, global warming resulting from increasing greenhouse gases. 

Yes, CO2 and other greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing due to human emissions, and the earth is slowly warming as a result.    

But it is silly to simply extrapolate rising greenhouse gas concentrations into the future because energy production technology will profoundly change during the next decades....and I am not talking about solar or wind power.

Nuclear power, starting with fission, but rapidly displaced by fusion power, will provide essentially limitless clean energy.

The False Hope of Wind and Solar

There is a lot of talk about wind and solar being the solution to the global warming problem, but the truth is that they will only make a minor contribution for many reasons, with their intermittency (only available during the day and during windy periods), environmental impacts, and low energy density being significant problems.   

Furthermore, the demand for energy, and particularly electricity, is going up much faster than renewables can be installed.  Why?   Because billions of people are moving out of poverty and the huge energy demands of data centers.  To name only a few.

Consider the U.S.  energy consumption statistics (below).   Energy use has increased rapidly during the past decades with fossil fuels still dominating (but more gas and less coal).  Wind and solar are very small in comparison.

The U.S. is actually one of the most renewable-friendly nations.  Considering the whole world (below), fossil fuels are even more dominant.

Solar and wind are not mankind's long-term energy solutions.  

Nuclear is.  Fission in the short term and fusion in the long term.  

Fission power is heavily used in some nations (such as in  France, where 70% of the electricity is from fission) and today about 9% of world energy is from fission.  No major safety issues and fission power is clean, with no air quality issues.   New designs of small modular fission reactors will make them much cheaper, more reliable, and make melt-downs impossible.

Major energy users, such as Amazon, are already committing to using such new technology fission reactors.

And there is fusion.   Fusion power is essentially limitless and does not produce nuclear waste.

The uninformed make jokes about fusion always being 20 years away.   They are wrong.  There are no theoretical reasons in the way of practical fusion reactors.  Dozens of private sector firms are working on prototypes, including Seattle's Helion.   

Break-even fusion has already been achieved.

Microsoft has agreed to purchase fusion-generated power from Helion starting in 2028

Folks...this going to happen.  Even if delayed a decade or two, fusion power will completely change the world's energy story in the same way the internal combustion engine ended the manure "crisis" over a century ago.

And one more thing.  With virtually unlimited energy from fusion, we can take CO2 out of the atmosphere, something called CO2 sequestration.  Several companies, such as Carbon Engineering of BC, are already working on prototypes.

So next time you hear end-of-the-world catastrophic predictions about global warming, think about horse waste.😀