February 27, 2011

Sunday Night Update

Tonight's run has pulled back on the lowland snow (see graphic for 24-h snow ending 4 PM). I wanted all of you to see how even this close in forecasts can vary when the atmosphere is on the edge (in this case rain versus snow). One thing that hasn't changed is the snow in the mountains...they are going to get hit very, very hard, with 2-3 feet in places. Note that the snow level is very low....some wet snow on the higher hills and if you are above 700-1000 ft be prepared for lots of white stuff. Bigger threat south of the city as this band of very heavy precipitation gets established after 1 AM.


Interestingly, the NWS's high-tech, high-resolution forecasting system..the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is going for lowland snow from Seattle southward (accumulated from 8 PM to 10 AM Monday):
Temperatures are cooling aloft and at the surface...the snow level is now around 1000 ft....

Regarding the wind event, the forecast low is still there and still very strong (972 mb)...but now is making landfall on northern Vancouver Island...which is less of a threat for Puget Sound...but still very strong winds along the coast (see forecast pressure map):See how fun forecasting is...it combines science and gambling. Probabilities and big pay offs...
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5 comments:

  1. DanFebruary 27, 2011 at 9:16 PM

    It's been xciting to watch this story develop. Where can one go to see the output from these models as they are generated? Are these publicly available? If not, how do I find the corresponding NOAA models?

    ReplyDelete
  2. RuthFebruary 27, 2011 at 9:38 PM

    Thanks for the update!

    ReplyDelete
  3. paintloverFebruary 27, 2011 at 10:51 PM

    Am I reading this right??? We are in Enumclaw, are we going to get hit again with snow? Currently 37degrees and pouring rain...but it definitely is feeling colder.

    ReplyDelete
  4. climo manFebruary 27, 2011 at 11:14 PM

    In regards to your gambling/forecasting reference: Relying too much on model outputs is like playing the slot machines.Just when it looks like all the bars are lining up and you`re going to hit the big jackpot,one changes ever so slightly and you end up losing your shirt!

    ReplyDelete
  5. JamesFebruary 28, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    Turns out to be very warm for snow this morning in lowland Portland. 39.7 at 7am. NWS was calling for snow here too this AM.

    ReplyDelete

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