The latest U.S. Drought Monitor graphic suggests that the only area with drought over the Northwest is on the western side of the Washington Cascades (see below).
Whether the term drought is appropriate can be debated. For example, reservoir levels for Seattle, located in the moderate drought area, are near normal (see below)
And most westside rivers are near normal (green colors below).
But whether you think we are in a drought right now, we won't be in a week, as a series of storms and a potent atmospheric river will hit our region.
Consider the forecast accumulated precipitation through next Tuesday at 5 AM (below).
Clearly, divine intervention.
Huge amounts in the mountains, with the greatest precipitation where the Drought Monitor suggested that drought is occurring. We are talking up to TEN INCHES of liquid water at the highest elevations (see below).
Much of the precipitation will occur over the weekend as a potent atmospheric river moves into our region from the southwest. To illustrate, the graphic below shows you the amount moisture transport at 5 PM Sunday, with the red and white colors indicating a massive horizontal movement of moisture into our region.
No wonder there will be a deluge in the mountains as massive amounts of warm air are forced to rise on the terrain.
The strong southwesterly flow associated with the atmospheric river will move warm, moist subtropical air into our region, resulting in temperatures at SEATAC surging into the 60s from Monday through Wednesday (see below).
It will feel like spring. And yes, spring began early this morning. The atmosphere must be watching the calendar.
But rain will return later next week.
Rivers will surge higher. For example, the Snoqualmie River will go from below-normal levels right now to well above normal flows, even breaking some daily records on March 28.
As I have stated before, heavy rain or snow in late March and early April is golden....far more valuable than earlier in the season. The water is all retained (no flooding worries), the ground is moistened before the dry summer, and the snowpack is topped off.
Cliff, with snow levels going above 6000ft, rain will melt off snow pack at most snotel or other weather stations, many are generally around 4000ft some higher some lower. This will ofcourse look bad for snow pack reports. My question is do you know what percentage of terrain is above 6000ft for water basins, can you estimate there snow totals, or does the snow pack reports already account for this or do they just use station readings? To me just a feeling looks like we are still in good shape, but if look at monitors showing lack luster and soon to look worse.
ReplyDeleteThis time of year ten to fifteen years ago two feet of snow on the ground at green water was not uncommon.
DeleteCliff, how much of this is actually going to fall as snow in the mountains? What is the projected snow level? I see storms like this in the spring actually reducing a significant amount of our mid-elevation snowpack if we get extended heavy rain on snow in the mountains.
ReplyDeleteJust wondering....Here in S. Everett, we seem to usually experience that "rain shadow" effect...I assume we will be getting a lot less rain than predicted for the other areas of Puget Sound.
ReplyDeleteSnowfall will be limited to the volcanoes. This event will reduce snowpack in the Puget Sound basin which is now near its seasonal peak.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to lose faith. It seems like every forecast for heavy rain stalls to the south of us. What's happening?
ReplyDeleteSWE: North 75%, South 84%; Central Cascades 72% of normal snow pack year to date. Let's see where we are at come May 1st. For a La Nina year, we could have done much better. Oregon sure did. This La Nina is just like what happened in 2022-2023.
ReplyDeleteYakima basin is way below normal (at 42% of normal this time of year). Or only 60% of our low last year. Did Drought.gov people turn mellow? I'll bet they hoist up a higher warning level.
ReplyDeleteUm, yeah the last "Pineapple express" didn't seem to live up to its billing. This latest "river" likely won't either. (yawn)
ReplyDeleteThe high snow levels won’t do anything good for snowpack but the current forecast calls for a top-10 rainiest March day at KBLI on Sunday. This will also be the first March with >normal precipitation for most Western Washington locations since 2017. Also, it does look we’ll have another brief “fake spring” early next week which will be a nice boost to the growing season for the gardeners among us.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, driving home from Bellingham to Glacier on Friday the 21st (I had the GPS running on the dashboard) I began to see snow mixed with heavy rain at 540 ft. By the time I rolled into Glacier, an elevation less than 1000 ft, conditions were downright "blizzard" and there was more than an inch of snow on the ground. The PRISM and NOAA rain-year average as-of today (3/23/25) is 94-96% of long-term normal. The "drought monitor" map (D1 - Moderate Drought) for the north Cascades makes absolutely no sense given the local reality(ies) this rain year. Poke around at
ReplyDeletehttps://dex.cocorahs.org/stations/WA-WC-70/climatology?source=noaa
I do think the drought monitor is to quick to label something as a "drought". But it is true that the PNW has had below average rainfall, at least in the north sound, this water year (mainly due to a cold dry January).
ReplyDeleteI did notice on the news, though: Yesterday, Ch. 13 FOX said that Seattle got over 0.8 inches, but Everett got only 0.01 inches, and indeed there was not much in Bothell- like last time.