The Washington State Department of Ecology has declared a drought emergency for large areas of Washington State, with particular emphasis on the Yakima watershed of south-central Washington.
Looking at observations and predictions, this drought declaration appears to be unwarranted and in error.
Let me provide the evidence, and you can decide.
First, if there is a drought situation, you might expect that precipitation would have been below normal over the "drought emergency" area, resulting in dry soils, both at the surface and below the surface.
To evaluate this, below is the percentage of normal precipitation during the "water year" from October 1 to yesterday.
Above normal (120-130%) precipitation at Yakima (star)! Most of Yakima and Kittitas counties received above-normal precipitation, and only a small portion on the northeast side was below normal.
What about comparing precipitation at Yakima and Ellensburg over this water year and previous water years ending April 8? The answer is below.
At both locations, this year was considerably wetter than normal! Doesn't suggest much of a water emergency, does it?
What about the Vegetation Drought Response Index? Unusually moist!
The truth is that precipitation has been bountiful over the Drought Emergency area, and soils and vegetation are normally moist, if not wetter than normal.
There must be SOMETHING suggesting drought! What is causing all this panic?
Perhaps it is because of the snowpack?
Below is the percent of normal for the water content of the regional snow pack this morning.
Northeast of Yakima, it is 97%. Below normal by 3%! And 105% (above normal) in Yakima and to the south. 91% for Wenatchee, but dropping to 74% to the north.
There is no water emergency, not even close. Not even in the neighborhood.
State officials pushing this narrative are doing a profound disservice to our state.
As expected, the Seattle Times Climate Lab gave this "emergency" big play in the paper today.
The naked political advocacy and bias of the paper were pretty obvious, as suggested by all the Trump talk in the article (see sample below).
Unfortunately, the majority of Times readers will take this and run because they choose this medium as their source of news, along with CNN and ZMSNBC. Thank you Cliff for your insight backed up by data.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I need new Glasses. I don't see any Drought Emergency either.
ReplyDeleteThe Department of Ecology cites Yakima area reservoir storage at only 59% of normal, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation estimates that irrigators will only receive 58% of normal water supplies through Septembers as justifications for their emergency declarations. Are these numbers in error, or are these measures in your view less relevant than the data you cite?
ReplyDeleteI agree! Dr. Mass, you give different measures than the department of ecology. Why are your measures better indicators of future water availability? I’m all ears.
DeleteWhat was going on offshore today real gusty strange winds started this afternoon. Almost blew the Valvoline oil place over where I was changing oil. Bellingham
ReplyDeleteAnd Trump makes the drought worse! I just knew he would be involved. Now where did I put my Trump doll and stick pins?
ReplyDeleteThe drought emergency was declared primarily due to low reservoir storage, which you didn't discuss.
ReplyDeleteThe reservior levels are rapidly rising and will continue to do so as snowpack melts. It is now 65% of normal and will certainly reach 80-90%. They should know this. Will have to do another blog on it...
DeleteKeechelus is very low.
DeleteThanks again, Cliff, for calling out The Seattle Times for its misleading climate reporting. What is particularly appalling is their failure, even when they contact you (a la Eric Lacitis's recent contact), to then report on what you said to him, merely because it doesn't fit their pre-conceived meme. Shame on them (and you know they are reading you.)
ReplyDeletePeople are catching on that the Seattle Times has taken to advocacy journalism on behalf of its Climate Lab sponsors to help improve its newspaper economics. We're on a very slippery slope to no trust in media.
ReplyDeleteThrough the first 6 month of the water season, beginning Oct. 1, NWS reports 7.27 inches of precipitation, 'normal' is 6.03, at Yakima. The snotel sites that measure SWE that actually drains into Rimrock and Bumping reservoirs are at or well above the median SWE. Snotel sites that measure SWE for the other sites that drain in Keechlus, Kachess and Cle Elum reservoirs are concerning, but I have some questions about them, largely that they are either low in elevation which naturally accumulate lesser SWE, and that only two are measuring SWE (both lower elevation) from flows into those lakes N of I-90 where there is a tremendous amount of high country that accumulate greater SWE that isn't being measured. Speaking from a personal standpoint of a guy who spends a lot of time out in winter weather-there's a hell of a lot more snow pack up high than last year at least, which translates to more SWE,
ReplyDeleteSo my concern is this-decisions in the YRB are being made about who gets what right now. Junior water users are being told they'll get 58% of their normal supply. Adjustments will be made as the actual amount of water become clear I assume, but lesser water means lesser crop size, less size to fruit and other crops, decisions made about planting or even abandoning some crops that lead to millions of dollars in losses that need not occur. There is a better way to insure greater accuracy and getting this right-using lidar. Of course, it's more expensive, but is it more expensive to get this down to the proverbial gnat's rear end than incur the losses that might occur if we don't.
This rain year the western slopes of the Cascades have been extremely normal. A lot of folks up here in Whatcom in rain jackets and boots have been stunned by the declaration. As for "statewide" declarations, those haven't made sense for a long time IMHO.
ReplyDelete