Why The "Emergency Drought" is No Emergency

Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" talks about the danger of exaggerating a threat to the point that no one believes you.

The Department of Ecology and the Seattle Times would be well advised to read this ancient story, because they are misleading the people of our state with their claims of a "drought emergency."

The truth is clear:  such "emergency" claims are contradicted by the facts.

Crying wolf about a non-existent drought not only lessens public confidence in such warnings but wastes money and can lead to a lack of public response when the situation becomes truly serious.

Remember the definition of an emergency (Cambridge Dictionary):

A dangerous or serious situation, such as an accident, that happens suddenly or unexpectedly and needs immediate action

As described in this and my previous blog, the current precipitation situation is not dangerous, did not develop suddenly, and does not require immediate action.

The claims of a drought emergency, centered on Kittitas and Yakima counties (see map), are very weak for many reasons. 

Consider the situation for the reservoirs serving this area.  Water levels are rapidly rising and will soon exceed last year's level.  Currently, the Yakima region reservoirs are at 67% of normal capacity and most of the snowmelt is in the future.  Thus, the storage levels will improve further.  By a lot.

One reason we can be sure of this is the predicted stream flows (by the Portland River Forecast Center).  The predicted river levels by late summer should be 87% to 105% of normal.   Healthy river levels like this are good for irrigation and for filling reservoirs.

The snowpack is not in an "emergency" state, with relevant basin being 86% of normal (see below from USDA)

The situation this year will be far better (moister) than last year.  But even with drier conditions than this year, agricultural productivity in Washington State was quite good in 2024 (see below), with the greatest weather problem for 2024 being the cold wave last spring (not drought).

Good news on the temperature front this year: no freezing cold wave predicted by the very skillful ECMWF ensemble of many forecasts through the end of the month.  Once in May the threat is over.

I talked to a reporter from WA Ag Information Network today and he had talked to several growers.  They are optimistic about the current season.

So should you.

In summary, the "drought emergency" talk is highly irresponsible and in contradiction to observed facts on the ground.  It is used as a tool to scare people, often with unsupported attempts to connect the fictitious "drought" to climate change.  

Finally, it is interesting to check Google Trends for how many searches have included "drought emergency...see below.  

This term has become more trendy during recent years, with Washington State being the number one place in the nation for using it.  The state with the most reliable and bountiful precipitation in the nation.   That tells you something....

If only Aesop were alive today....