Skillful Weather Warnings But Catastrophic Damage and Large Death Tolls. We Need to Do Better.

 The same tragedy has happened time and again.

An excellent prediction of a major weather-related threat is unheeded, leading to massive destruction and loss of life.

We need to do better.  We can do better.

This blog will discuss the problem and how it might be addressed.

There are numerous examples of this failure mode; let me provide just a few.

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

In 2005, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina near New Orleans resulted in 1400 deaths and $125 billion in damage. Excellent forecasts by the National Weather Service and weather models.

 

Local governments failed to take the forecasts seriously and did not evacuate vulnerable populations.   Poorly designed levees failed.

LA Wildfires, 2025

The wildfires in LA led to 30 deaths and at least 100 billion in damage.  Meteorological forecasts of strong, dry Santa Ana winds by the models were stunningly good and the National Weather Service put out an apocalyptic forecast (see below)

Power companies failed to de-energize powerlines, and local governments failed to pre-position fire-fighting capability and had emptied a critical reservoir, to name only a few of the mistakes made.

Maui Wildfire, 2023

Weather forecast models were emphatic that a major downslope windstorm would occur in the area around Lahaina.   The National Weather Service had a red-flag warning for the lee sides of the islands, but did not identify the particular threat to Lahaina.

After the fire was started, the local response was very problematic, not staying with the fire when they thought it was out, blocking travel routes, and not facilitating an effective evaluation.

Hurricane Helene (2024)

Heavy precipitation and flooding from this storm resulted in 250 deaths and nearly 80 billion dollars in damage.  Heavy rain reaching as much as 30 inches led to catastrophic flooding.   NOAA/NWS forecast models did an excellent job in predicting the hurricane path and heavy rain (see below).

The National Weather Service put out very strong warnings (see below), but a lack of communication and critical evacuations from threatened areas led to major loss of life.

Texas Flooding (2025)

As documented in my earlier blog and many other sources, the National Weather Service provided timely warnings, but local communities lacked the warning capability to effectively remove individuals from harm's way.  In addition, vulnerable camp facilities were located on threatened floodplains.

I could easily provide many other cases of excellent forecasts, but a lack of proper response, leading to massive unnecessary deaths and economic loss.

Why are we in this failure mode?  How can it be fixed?

First, it must be recognized that weather prediction has gotten immensely more skillful over the past 30 years.

The combination of much more skillful global models plus high-resolution prediction capabilities has resulted in meteorologists now being able to forecast dangerous conditions with great skill days in advance.  

For example, huge improvements in hurricane track forecasts (see below)

Heavy rain skill by the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center?  Going up rapidly (see skill of 1-inch totals below)

Second,  it needs to be recognized that our ability to observe what is happening in real-time is immensely better due to far more comprehensive observations.

Improved weather radars and massive new satellite assets provide meteorologists and others with extraordinary knowledge of what is happening....abilities we did possess 20-30 years ago (see a sample below).

With better observations and predictions, meteorologists, hydrologists, and others in NOAA and other government agencies are in a FAR better position to provide actionable guidance for saving lives and property.

Third, with this knowledge, local and state governments, in concert with the Federal government,  must take responsibility for using the improved forecast capabilities to save lives and property.

This means better communications to the public, better warning systems, better planning for adverse conditions, and more.  

We can radically reduce deaths and losses due to storms and adverse weather by recognizing the extraordinary potential of improved observations and forecasts, and then applying this information to warn and protect our communities.

What should we NOT do?  Blame climate change or political parties you don't like.

Climate change has only a very small impact on the intensity of extreme weather (there is very, very strong science to support this statement).  Pushing climate as the origin of these extremes leads to inaction on the real problems.  Even if climate change were important, adaptation can save most lives.

Both political parties have been in power as this situation has festered.   This is a fully bipartisan problem.  Name-calling and blame will lead to inaction and more deaths.

Total nonsense.