The Northwest is known for its weak cold fronts, since the relatively warm Pacific Ocean warms, near-surface, cold Arctic air before it arrives in our region.
But sometimes conditions allow us to get a relatively strong cold front, with a sharp temperature decline and profound wind shift...and this will happen tomorrow afternoon and evening.
A strong cold front that will bring substantial snow to the mountains and further ease any drought worries.
Let me show you the latest forecasts!
The predicted sea-level pressure (brown lines), near-surface temperatures (colors), and winds (arrows) at 5 PM Tuesday are shown below. A strong front (indicated by the red dashed lines) has reached the Washington coast.
A profound wind shift (from southwesterly to northwesterly) is associated with the front, with cold air (blue) behind. Mama Mia! This is a spicy front.
The front is even stronger aloft, as shown by the predicted temperatures at 850 hPa (about 5000 ft) the next day (the front is crossing eastern Oregon at this time). Dark blue is cold air. Cold enough for snow in all the mountains!
A simulated radar image for Tuesday evening shows an intense line of precipitation with the front (look for the thin yellow line that crosses the coast near Hoquim and extends to near Bellingham). Pro-tip: You will not want to be outside when this line is over you.
The line will be associated not only with heavy precipitation, but also with a dramatic wind shift and temperature decline.
To illustrate, here are the predicted temperatures at Hoquiam, on the Washington Coast, for the next few days. Frontal passage drops the temperature from 49F to 39°F- a substantial decline on the coast. On the western slopes of the Cascades, the temperature drop will be roughly TWICE that amount.
All this means snow in the mountains. Below is the predicted snowfall through Thursday at 5 PM. A foot or more in some locations! A huge benefit this time of the year.
This surge of cold air originated over the Arctic and pushed southward into Alaska and then across the Gulf of Alaska. Interestingly, the Gulf of Alaska is substantially cooler than normal (see below, blue indicates cooler than normal), which allows the chilly air to reach us with less ocean warming.
Finally, here in Seattle, the strong front will bring blustery winds tomorrow afternoon (see plot from Seattle windwatch below at 11 AM). With the new leaves on the trees, there could be some scattered power outages near the coast and Puget Sound.
Enjoy the weather show tomorrow!
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Yeah, weird to have a Winter Storm Watch in mid-April.
ReplyDeleteThis is a great example of why summer snow pack levels depend as much on spring as they do winter. An unusually cold and wet spring can balance out an usually warm or dry winter. That seems to be the case here (our winter was warm but not dry). My guess is snow levels in June will still be a bit below average but a lot closer to normal than they were in late February.
I was briefly encouraged about a Tuesday afternoon rainshadow developing over Snohomish County, but then I took a look at the winds. I think I'm just going to play things safe and pause outdoor activities for a day (or two).
ReplyDeletein the Seattle Times' perverse "up is down" world, this likely means a worsening drought and climate is changing more than ever.
ReplyDeleteAnd the wind will topple the space needle.
DeleteI certainly hope it doesn't! The Times needs to learn to be more responsible with its climate coverage. A toppled Space Needle won't help with that. Not to mention the damage, destruction, and loss of life that would inevitably happen if it were to come crashing down!
DeleteOmg this will WORSEN the drought level! I have seen the drought alerts correspond with excessive amounts of rain. The matrix is somehow programmed backwards to where more is less and less is more Black is white and white is black, up is down and down is up
ReplyDeleteThank you, Cliff; thanks to this post i was prepared for the 5pm Soaking!
ReplyDeleteYesterday's high in Glacier was only 45.5 F yesterday (Tuesday), and we had snowflakes mixed in with rain this morning. If anything's true (reliable) about spring weather in the Pacific Northwest, it's "mercurial"! Variable. Charming, actually. Who want's dull predictability?
ReplyDeleteAs a long time grape grower in Central WA - I'm not going to argue drought or whatever. We irrigate off of the Columbia River (so to speak) and I don't believe that in my lifetime there will ever be a shortage of water from that river.
ReplyDeleteHowever, there are farming areas such as the Yakima Valley who irrigate from Cascade Mountains melt off. These areas are going to experience difficulties this summer. I don't know what percentage the snow pack is at but I do know what I can see in the Cascade foothills across the river from us. Snowpack was pretty much non existent in February. There have been snow storms up there, including last night, but they did and will quickly melt off.
There seems to be a misunderstanding of how irrigation works. We don't need water now, we need it in August. If there is no snow base for these late spring snowstorms to land on they quickly melt and are gone long before the dog days of summer.
The irrigation reservoirs being full this time of year is meaningless if there in nothing to refill them with. Did the Yakima Valley overbuild their irrigation with the addition of the Roza canal in the 1950's? Perhaps.
Cameron.... the key issue is whether the reservoirs will be full in late June after the snow has melted. Starting with them full NOW, with over 50% of the normal snowpack in place and no unusual heat waves in the forecast, I believe that the chances for the reservoirs to be in good shape in June is very high...cliff
DeleteCrazy hail and thunderstorms in Kitsap County. It looks like there's been a snow stor.
ReplyDelete