It is time to stop complaining about Northwest weather.
Near perfection is ahead.
With the onshore movement of marine air, temperatures over the region west of the Cascades are now in the 60s and 70s. And according to the latest model forecasts, western Washington will stay in the 70s (see Seattle forecasts below). Eastern Washington will remain warm, but not extremely so.
Wildfires?
In contradiction to some of the scary claims going around, the wildfire area is below normal for this time of the year, with only three small fires currently burning, with two essentially dead. Moderate temperatures and relatively light winds will prevent any major blow-up during the next week.
We got through the highly dangerous July 4th fire period in good shape.
Precipitation? Not much is predicted over western Washington but plenty over BC and northeast WA, which should help to keep down the fires.
A persistent trough is predicted to form and reform offshore (see the forecast of upper-level pressures/heights around 18,000 ft for next Wednesday morning). Blue indicates lower-than-average values (troughing). Northwest heatwaves are associated with highly amplitude ridging (high pressure) over the northwest Pacific.
A very different pattern from that predicted.
The tendency for offshore low pressure has been very persistent lately. This is not a wet pattern for Washington and Oregon but it is one that brings moderate temperatures.
Enjoy.
With a lot of our irrigation water originating from BC on the Eastside, funny how the DOE is already warning of possible drought and water supply shortage. With the wildfire season "just ramping up" due to lack of rain.
ReplyDeletehttps://mynorthwest.com/3906693/washington-department-ecology-issues-statewide-drought-advisory/
I believe you mentioned a few months ago, that an 8-week period of mid-summer in Western Washington, usually brings one of the driest periods of weather in the USA. This is "our secret" summer, that other parts of the country likely do not even know about!...That is fine with me. Bring on our warm, but not too warm, Seattle summers! I do hope though, that lots of rain shows up by October; it feels like we must be considerably below average for rain so far this year.
ReplyDeleteCliff, I think you might be making a little light about the fire danger situation, especially in Eastern Washington, but also on the west side. True, there has not been too much fire yet, but the potential for large fires is present. May and June were dry months with the northern and northeast sections of Eastern Washington getting 40 to 80% of normal rain and the Cascade eastslopes 20 to 40 %. These months were also warmer than normal by several degrees and the warmth and dryness continue into July. Historically, we don't usually get concerned about larger fires until late July and August but the potential is already here and only needs an ignition source. This may be tested over the next couple of days with lightning a possibility so lets hope there is enough moisture with it. .
ReplyDeleteThere is going to be some thunderstormx east of the Cascade crest, accompanied by some precipitation. The key issue is that winds are not going be very strong. Wind is not sufficiently appreciated. All big fires are driven by strong winds. The grasses are already dry enough to burn. They are usually dry enough to burn in eastern WA by now. There will be grass fires. But without strong winds, they will be controllable. I am NOT saying there will be no fires. But I don't see any major blowups with this pattern.
DeleteI believe we are still normal in terms of rain/reservoir levels for the most part, despite it being rather dry of late. Normally, May and June can be a bit wet, then we dry out for almost 3 months before the rains return, usually by Oct.
ReplyDeleteIt does feel rather dry, but I don't think we are as dry as it feels.
Not so perfect everywhere. For those of us living near the water (I live on the the west side of Anacortes) this onshore flow produces fog in the morning that can linger until noon, or later. Temperatures gradients can by 15 deg. F over 4 miles. I escape the cold by going to my boat in the marina in town.
ReplyDeleteI'll add to my comment above the description of the weather that the former head ranger at Deception Pass State Park used, "it is like standing in front of the refrigerator with the door open".
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ReplyDeleteGreat article Cliff...this summer has gone surprisingly well so far. No extreme heat so far. We are very blessed to have no dry easterly flow paired with the heat we have received so far. Mostly onshore flow even with the ridge building up over the weekend! Great extended forecast. August and September will probably prove otherwise though ðŸ˜
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