The region has palpably entered a fall-like period of cooling temperatures and the return of precipitation.
But to quote the old saw: "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet"
A moderate frontal system will move in tomorrow (Tuesday) night, bringing rain across the region (see total through 5 PM Thursday below). Maybe a half-inch in the Cascades.
Enough to knock back local fires to a smolder.
But the real action is still ahead. A weak front will move in Saturday morning (see 24 hr precipitation ending 5 PM Saturday).
But that is not the main story. Early next week a potent atmospheric river of substantial moisture will be headed into our region (see total water in a vertical column for 5 PM Monday). Mama Mia! That is a decent atmospheric river. Blue indicates lots of water vapor heading our way.
The 24-hour precipitation total ending 5 AM Tuesday includes several inches in our mountains.
And the 72h precipitation total ending Wednesday morning has as much as ten inches at high elevations. Wow.
The European model is much dryer with nextweek rain than the gfs model, isn't the European model more accurate?.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like today the European model has come into general agreement with the GFS.
DeleteWill this impact the large number of fires in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan?
ReplyDeleteI hope you're right. But I'll believe it when I see it. We're bone-dry in the Central Willamette Valley, and I see nothing in the forecast to indicate that will change.
ReplyDeleteWhat forecast are you looking at? Aside from the fact there is some sort of rain in the forecast starting Sunday night, every day for ten days, you are right, there's nothing to indicate that will change. Also, it's typically bone dry in mid-September, just saying.
DeleteYou see nothing? What about Cliff's forecast?
DeleteI echo Gordon's comments, the local forecasters here in Portland have indicated nothing of the sort when it comes to their forecasts. Not too surprising, since many have only highlighted how the area has seen "a record number of 80 - degree temps or higher this summer!" All is panic and alarm, as per their marching orders.
ReplyDeleteHi Cliff! Luminata is at Greenlake this Saturday at 7. Any chance of an hourly play by play, so we can time setup and prevent soggy lanterns?
ReplyDeleteHope you and readers will attend!
I can tell my SAD will kick in about the same time as the atmospheric river arrives in town!!
ReplyDeleteThat's the spirit. If you will it to happen, it most likely will.
DeleteMeanwhile at UN today,
ReplyDelete"UN Secretary-General António Guterres evoked the recent floods in Libya which – according to estimates from government officials and aid agencies – caused between 4,000 and 11,000 deaths. Guterres echoed the conclusions of scientists who have said that climate change made the devastating storm 50% more intense."
How just how, do they get away with that!? Maybe climate change will make winter 50% more snowy and colder for us this year. Bring on the season change!
The news is using this groups "findings."
ReplyDeletehttps://www.worldweatherattribution.org/
Help us all.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-09-18-flooding-libya-greece-warmer-temperatures
DeleteEven the weather channel.
"Scientific studies on extreme weather events, going through peer-review, are usually published months or even years after an event occurred, when the public has moved on and questions about responsibilities, rebuilding or relocating have been debated without taking scientific evidence on the influence of climate change into account."
DeleteOn WWA FAQ page. Trying to get public and government to make decisions based on quick science not at all reviewed or debated by scientists. So now we can make rash decisions now, that may be more negatively impactful to ourselves to later find out they were wrong, if it is ever admitted or published.
Budd, The Weather Channel has been onboard the Climate Apocolypse train for decades at this point. They're even naming normal/seasonal storms at this point. Not a serious source for weather information.
ReplyDeleteI know that, but as almost a monopoly on weather info, with so called scientists on staff you would think they would not quote and use this groups study. They are literally using their doctorates to state something as truth before anyone can look over it. It truly is a shame. What is also shameful, if so skilled they should've be able to forecast these catastrophes better and warn people. I know the truth that their statements are false, but people need to realize that if these groups know exactly what impacts are made worse after the fact they should be able to forecast said impacts and warn people better, the whole idea of weather forecast to warn people. But they can't which means they don't know the true impacts on storms from climate change.
DeleteLet's all give Cliff a props for forecasting a benign fire season he predicted last Fall! Pretty wet system moving through tonight and more next week fire season over.
ReplyDeleteHi cliff- I work in creek restoration and we’re told a big storm could end our permit season. Do you think next week we’re cooked? More than two inches would be the end. Ugh.
ReplyDeleteBring it on! Warm rain before the ski season.
ReplyDeleteSeattle Public Utilities says they are getting short on water and calling for conservation. Is the coming week going to substantially fix it, in the nick of time?
ReplyDeleteWas also wondering about this - what the reservoir situation is going to look like next summer.
ReplyDeleteThe local paper and now our utilities can't seem to recognize basic science/statistics that weather is what it is and changes from season to season. Why is Seattle Public Utilities announcing the need to conserve water ahead of an upcoming atmospheric rivers that likely are coming in the upcoming wet season? When I was a little boy, we heard the story of "Chicken Little" and learned a lesson from this.
ReplyDelete