One of the most remarkable aspects of Northwest weather is the rapid turn-on of significant precipitation in November.
October is often a decent month, with substantial sunshine. But not November. The master switch really gets pulled sometime during the first week of the month, with the third week often being the wettest of the entire year.
To illustrate this, here are the climatological probabilities of getting a tenth of an inch of rain in a day in Seattle. The probabilities sneak up in October, but there is a huge jump during the middle weeks of November (see red arrow)
This year will not disappoint rain lovers and ducks.
The highly skillful European Center model predicts substantial rainfall through November 7th....some locations (mountain slopes) will enjoy as much as 8 inches of rain.
The higher resolution WRF model describes the first pulse of rain late Wednesday and into Thursday, with substantial soakings in the Olympics and Cascades. Even eastern Washington gets notable rain.
This rainy period will be associated with a moderate atmosphere river....a plume of moisture out of the tropics/subtropics...that will be aimed directly at our region (see the forecast for tomorrow at 5 PM of the amount of atmospheric water vapor in a vertical column of air).
To evaluate the confidence in this forecast, meteorologists review ensembles of many forecasts. For Seattle, the National Weather Service global ensemble shows a rapid precipitation turn-on tomorrow after roughly 6 PM, a wet night following, and then lots of rain over the subsequent week. All the ensemble forecasts indicate wet conditions....you can take this prediction to the bank!
Many Northwest Rivers are now experiencing below-normal flows. This will not be the case in one week. Reservoirs should start to fill
Furthermore, we have been experiencing far cooler-than-normal temperatures over the past several days. The cold period will end with the precipitation, as warm moist air sweeps into the region.
Here in Everett...I am thinking about the Cat Stevens tune "Moon Shadow"...except in this case, I am experiencing a "Rain Shadow"....some moderate rain today, but less than half of what other areas in Western Washington will receive. In a smaller way, I guess that Everett is now the Sequim of Puget sound?!
ReplyDelete"Something happening here...What it is , is not so clear".
DeleteIn Everett, as I reflect on the Cat Stevens song "Moon Shadow," a different experience unfolds—more like a "Rain Shadow." While there's been some moderate rain today, it pales in comparison to the precipitation other parts of Western Washington are expecting. It's almost like Everett has become the Sequim of Puget Sound, albeit on a smaller scale! 10.0.0.0.1
ReplyDeleteIn Everett, I can't help but be reminded of Cat Stevens' song "Moon Shadow." However, in this scenario, it feels more like a "Rain Shadow." We did have some moderate rain today, but it was significantly less than what other parts of Western Washington are expecting. To a lesser extent, one might say that Everett is becoming the Sequim of Puget Sound! 10.0.0.0.1
ReplyDeleteIn Everett, my thoughts are turning to Cat Stevens' song "Moon Shadow." However, in this scenario, it's more like I'm encountering a "Rain Shadow." We've had some moderate rainfall today, but it's been notably less than what other regions in Western Washington are expecting. In a way, it's as if Everett has taken on the role of the Sequim of Puget Sound, experiencing significantly less precipitation than its neighboring areas.
ReplyDelete10.0.0.0.1
I find myself pondering Cat Stevens' "Moon Shadow," but in this instance, it's more like a "Rain Shadow" experience. We had some moderate rain today, though it's considerably less than what other regions in Western Washington are expected to get. To some extent, it seems Everett is becoming the Sequim of Puget Sound! 10.0.0.0.1
ReplyDeleteWhy is basically the same thing being posted by supposedly different people? What's up with that?!?!
ReplyDelete