After a period of high pressure, weak winds, fog, low clouds, and little precipitation, the weather in our region is about to get quite intense and interesting.
Strong winds will soon buffet western Washington and heavy snow (multiple feet) will fall across our regional mountains.
A front went through this morning and our region is now in moist, unstable northwesterly flow as shown by the visible satellite image this morning (below). The white and dark areas offshore are convective showers and you can see the intense cloudiness on the western slopes of the Cascade associated with substantial snow showers.
White-out conditions are now occurring in the mountain passes, illustrated by the WSDOT pass cam below.
Let me show you predicted snow accumulations from the latest University of Washington model forecast.
Through 4 PM the Cascades will get as much as 6-12 inches, and eastern Washington be whitened.
The total through 4 AM Saturday is much more impressive, with 1-2 feet over higher terrain.
And then there are the winds.....
Some of you will experience power outages overnight. I am charging up my devices as soon as I get home from the UW!
A low-pressure system will move eastward to our north, creating a large north-south pressure difference across western Washington (see forecast surface pressure map for 4 AM Saturday). That means strong winds.
The latest NOAA HRRR forecast (available on the City of Seattle Windwatch site built by the UW) predicts powerful winds overnight.
Below are the forecast gusts at 1 and 3 AM. First, the coast and NW Washington will get hit and then Puget Sound, some with winds exceeding 50 mph. Such winds guarantee some power outages.
The only good thing is that many trees have lost their leaves, making them less vulnerable
So, yes, reviewing your forecast, it appears that we will have a notable amount of snowfall in our upper watersheds. But if I understand your forecast data predictions that appears to suggest we're probably going to lose most of that, with the exception of the snow above 6,500 to 7,000 feet. Is that accurate? Also, professor, I note that Anchorage is having a possible record November, going into December snow season. Is that by your data a consequence of El Nino? Say, the adverse of what will happen in the West Coast mountains in the lower 48, south of the British Columbia Coast Range? Thanks. Looking forward to your next post on the current weather situation.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I am seeing. On mountain forecast the freezing levels are very high on Sunday night; around 10k feet on Rainier with snow levels a bit lower. The amount of rain predicted is nuts too.
DeleteIf that materializes it's going to be a mess. Here's to hoping the forecasts are overestimating temperatures
Hopefully the winds will blow the leaves out of my yard and into someone else.
ReplyDeleteAre strong gap windows expected in the foothills near the passes, or is this primarily a coastal wind event?
ReplyDeleteThe storm before the El Nino calm this winter so lets enjoy the moment.
ReplyDeleteFor me, just north of EBRG, a little snow, a little rain, non-serious wind Sat Noon, and then rising temperatures (rain).
ReplyDeleteExecutive Summary: "crummy weather"
The current forecast for snow was (surprisingly) spot-on here in the valley northwest of Mt Baker (Glacier). "Oh by gosh, by golly" ...here we go! Keeping the home fires burning; there's actually been a tad more than we expected at this low elevation. The ski area may open end of next week - they're hopeful. I've seen far worse starts to the season. Cheers!
ReplyDeleteIn southern Thurston County, it was hardly windy at all that night. It maxed out here at only 13MPH.
ReplyDeleteAt the peak of the power outages mostly centered on Tacoma and Seattle, dozens of them with almost 9000 outages, most were fixed in less than 24 hours. I've been impressed with PSEs repair capacity in the last few years.
In western WA, what months have historically had the worst floods?
ReplyDelete