A substantially above-average amount of snow has fallen in the Northwest mountains this autumn: enough to warm the cold hearts of Northwest skiers.
Let me begin by showing you the snow-laden summit of Crystal Mountain late Saturday afternoon (see below). A very wintry scene!
In Washington State, the snowpack ranges from 188% of normal to 1775% of normal.
Not impressed yet? Northeast Oregon is over TWO THOUSAND PERCENT of normal.
Call the Seattle Times ClimateLab! You know they would have done a story if it had been below normal 😈.
The truth is that early in the season, when totals are typically low, you can get these crazy percentiles. Still impressive, though.
The current map of the water equivalent in the current snowpack (called SWE) is shown below. Much more than last year, by the way.
What about the forecast for the next few days?
You guessed it: MORE SNOW! As shown by the UW model prediction, the North Cascades and the mountains of southwest BC will be hit hard. Several feet at some higher elevation locations.
La Nina years are generally good for snow and we are seeing some hints of La Nina weather patterns during the past weeks.
I will be waxing my skis during the next few weeks...
If you really want to get excited, check out the European Center's extended (46-day) snow-total forecasts (see below). Yards of snow in some places. A good early start. I am optimistic about skiing over the Christmas holidays.
I will be waxing my skis during the next few weeks...
Potential good news for my Yakima Valley farmer friends and plentiful 2025 water year.
ReplyDeleteI'm in the "snow shadow" when snow approaches from the west. Thus, 20" in the next 45 days is near average, I suppose. This area – NE of Ellensburg – can get much more when there is a flow from the SSE and there is cold-air-damming. In 1995, I think, the region from Yakima northward got 5 feet between Thanksgiving and early January.
ReplyDeleteI lived just southwest of Ellensburg at the time, it was the winter of '96-'97, actually. We had 48 inches on the ground at one point in January. It started with a storm around November 21st, 22 inches fell overnight. CWU was closed for a couple days.
DeleteOT : the predicted cyclone has appeared just north of Panama
ReplyDeleteThe percent change values should be based upon the average season's maximum value, not a daily average. That would get rid of those crazy percent change values.
ReplyDeleteThe robust snowpack is particularly impressive given that most of the state has received below normal precip over the past month.
ReplyDeleteYup, definitely do wax those skis! I've seen cold, wet starts like this fizzle simply rainy winters, but ...enjoy.
ReplyDeleteI grew up in Western Washington in the 1950s and ‘60s and on a few occasions saw, and got excited by early mountain snow packs. My father’s and grandparents’ generations would smile and say that in their experience early snowpacks ended up as November and December floods. Mostly they were right. We’ll see what this year renders.
ReplyDeleteCliff, how likely is the I-5 summit south of Ashland OR to be snowed in the weekend before Thanksgiving?
ReplyDelete