The Great American Weather Tragedy: Excellent Forecasts But Poor Societal Response

 It has happened again and again.

Greatly improved weather forecasting technology provides a stunningly accurate forecast of a severe or impactful weather event.

But even with excellent warnings,  dozens to thousands of people lose their lives, and billions of dollars in losses occur.  

Deaths and losses that could have been prevented had there been an effective societal response.  

You know these events well, such as:

The 2025 Los Angeles wildfire event associated with strong Santa Ana winds:  31 people died, with an estimated 150 billion in damage.

Hurricane Katina in 2005, which hit New Orleans, killing nearly 2000 people and resulting in 160 billion dollars of damage.

The 2023 Lahaina fire, produced by well-forecast strong downslope winds descending the West Maui mountains, killed 100 people and destroyed the scenic town of Lahaina (roughly 30 billion dollars in damage)

Lahaina, Hawaii

Hurricane Maria (2017) killed over 3000 people and resulted in tens of billions of dollars of damage.

I could list another dozen events like these, with over 10,000 Americans losing their lives and over ONE TRILLION dollars in loss.

Each of these events was nearly perfectly predicted by modern weather prediction models.  

Most of the lives lost and damage could have been avoided with effective societal planning and responses.

A critical story that the American media has never covered.

This blog will review some of these events and explain what could have been done better.   I just submitted a paper on this topic, so this is something I have deeply researched and thought about.

Let me go into a few of the events in more detail.

2005 Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Karina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, producing extensive flooding of New Orleans due to levee failures.  This storm resulted in 1833 deaths, the displacement of millions of people, and approximately $161 billion in damage, making it the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.  

Both the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and local NWS offices produced accurate and timely forecasts for Katrina.  The forecast track 72 h before landfall was close to the observed, with accurate predictions of storm intensity and location during the final 48 h.  Several post-storm service assessments found significant deficiencies in pre-storm preparation and post-storm response.  For example, local officials delayed ordering a mandatory evacuation in New Orleans until 19 hours before landfall, leading to hundreds of unnecessary deaths. The response from FEMA and other Federal agencies was delayed and inadequate, with communications failures hindering effective action to save lives and property.  Finally, the levee infrastructure protecting New Orleans was not designed for the passage of a strong hurricane, with improvements delayed by legal actions from environmental organizations.

2017 Hurricane Maria

Hurricane Maria reached Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017, as a Category 4-5 hurricane, resulting in nearly 3000 deaths and over $90 billion in economic losses.  The infrastructure of the island was devastated, with prolonged power, communications, and water outages as well as major damage to buildings, roads, and bridges.  The track forecast was highly accurate, indicating a major hurricane passing over the island 3-4 days in advance.  48 h before landfall, the storm was predicted to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane.

Puerto Rico after Maria

The extreme death toll in Puerto Rico was associated with poorly maintained power, cellular, and water infrastructure that collapsed during the storm.  Lack of planning and crisis management led to an inadequate response, made worse by a massive communication system failure.  Many of the deaths occurred in the elderly who were unable to access critical medical care.

2025 Los Angeles Wildfire

On January 7-9, 2025, a strong Santa Ana event, accompanied by intense downslope winds, resulted in several major wildfires around the Los Angeles Basin, resulting in over $150 billion in economic loss and 30 deaths.  The predictability of the wind event was high, with accurate predictions within three days of the start of the strong, dry winds. The day before the fires (January 6), the Los Angeles NWS office released an apocalyptic message predicting extreme risk from the strong winds as well as an Extreme Fire warning for the Los Angeles area.   I even blogged about it the day before!

Local municipalities and power companies made numerous errors and did not act effectively to apply the excellent NWS forecasts.  For example, local utilities failed to de-energize power lines, leading to several fires.   The Los Angeles fire department did not pre-position firefighting resources in vulnerable areas, including the site of a recent fire that is now believed to have re-ignited.   A large water reservoir had been emptied for minor repairs and not refilled, leading to a lack of water for firefighting.  Finally, the evacuation from wildfire areas was disorganized and ineffective, a situation highlighted in a recent report for Los Angeles County.

Many More Cases

There are many other events with excellent forecasts and poor societal outcomes that could be noted.  

Skillfully forecast, Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the southern New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, resulting in 254 deaths and an estimated $70 billion in economic loss, mainly from coastal flooding.  The February 2021 Midwest cold wave resulted in extensive power outages, as natural gas lines and wind turbines failed during a period of massive demand.   This skillfully predicted event led to 262 deaths, mainly from hypothermia and carbon monoxide poisoning, and $24 billion in economic loss. Hurricane Ian made landfall along the southwest Florida coast on September 28, 2022, as a Category 4 storm with 150-mph winds; a catastrophic storm surge caused the majority of the estimated 161 deaths.  Damage was at least $112 billion, making it the third costliest U.S. hurricane.   In 2024, Hurricane Helene brought a large storm surge and extensive wind damage to Florida and devastating flooding and landslides to mountain communities in Tennessee and North Carolina, resulting in at least 230 deaths and approximately $80 billion in economic loss. Well forecast days before.  There are many more events like this, but you get the point.

There is Much That Could Be Done

In my paper, I talk about specific actions that could be taken to greatly reduce loss of life and property from well-forecast weather events, including:

(1) The National Weather Service should reorganize its office structure to prioritize severe weather prediction and improve communication to local governments and responsible groups.  

(2) A National Disaster Review Board (NDRB), patterned after the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), should review major weather and climate-related disasters and provide recommendations on specific steps for reducing loss of life and destruction.  

(3) Better use of direct satellite communication and expansion of NOAA Weather Radio could ensure that all Americans get timely warnings, no matter where they are.

Improved and rebuilt levees, New Orleans.

(4) Greater emphasis and resources must be provided to increase the resilience of homes, buildings, and infrastructure to extreme weather events, and increased priority should be given to educating the public about the nature of local extreme weather, how to monitor the risk, and the best approaches to dealing with such threats.

(5) Local governments need to greatly increase their coordination with the National Weather Service and better use weather forecasts to protect their citizens.

Don't get me wrong, improved weather prediction is already saving many lives and reducing property damage, but there is SO MUCH MORE we can do.

It is frustrating that the media spends so much time talking about loss of life from climate change, but never mentions that improved weather prediction and investments to improve resilience could reduce severe weather-related deaths and damage by 90% of more.