Good news for those of you who dislike heatwaves:
There are none forecast over the Pacific Northwest for the next 10 days.
Importantly, we are running out of time to experience a serious heatwave in our region.
First, let's define what is meant by a heatwave.
According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), a heatwave occurs when there are more than five consecutive days during which the maximum temperature exceeds normal by 9F or more.
We are now past the peak period for major Northwest heatwaves, as shown by the plot of record high temperatures (red shading) from June 1 through October 1 below. Today is down by the red arrow.
The really high temperatures really decline after mid-August.
Why? Because daily solar radiation is declining relatively rapidly now, and the days are getting shorter (see plot below)
The current forecasts indicate no heatwaves for much of the rest of the month.
Consider the National Weather Service forecast temperatures for Seattle Tacoma Airport (below). During the next ten days, temperatures are expected to climb to around 80F before declining in the mid-70s.
Yakima warms up into the low 90s before dropping into the mid-80s. Close to average.
The NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook is for generally normal conditions over the western US.
And their precipitation outlook is for wetter than normal conditions.
In short, at this point it appears that our summer is heading for an unremarkable end, with near-normal conditions.
You want weather excitement? Head to Hawaii, where a potent tropical storm will approach this weekend (see below)
As the storm moves through, heavy rain will hit many of the islands (see below).
Thank you, Cliff. Much appreciated. It appears this may be the first moderate summer in the greater Seattle area in about 10 years. At least based on lack of extreme high temperatures. The trend of above average temps has been the new normal since the 2010s began. My dahlias are thriving, tomatoes not so much. How are we tracking vs historical average high temps?
ReplyDeleteNo heatwaves is fine by me! Bring on the cooler and wetter weather! I hope it will help all the hard working firefighters get a handle on all the fires that are raging across the Northwest right now.
ReplyDeleteIt's nice that the billions and billions of dollars taken out of the citizens pockets by the CCA is finally paying off. From what I understand, another few billion, and it will establish a statewide "thermostat", so we can just set the temp at 72° year round, (with snow at Christmas, of course)and have beautiful sunny days, with cool, refreshing rain at night.
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