As predicted, the winds aloft have turned easterly (from the east), resulting in smoke from eastern Washington moving aloft over western Washington.
This is actually good news for eastern Washington, as it leads to reduced wildfire activity and eastward fire movement.
This situation is only temporary, and later this week the situation will reverse, again pushing strong westerly winds into eastern Washington... with the potential for renewed rapid fire growth.
The Seattle PanoCam shot at 7 AM was not subtle. Lots of smoke.
And the visible satellite image clearly showed the smoke moving westward aloft:Air quality is still relatively decent in most of western Washington (green and yellow dots below), except for the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains
The fact that most of the smoke is aloft is shown by the laser ceilometers run by the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency (see the vertical plot over time at Seattle's Beacon Hill below).
Surface heating during the day shows mixing down some of he smoke later today, so surface air quality may decline.
The current pattern, with high pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific, is good for reducing winds in eastern Washington--which means less rapid fire growth (see max winds so far today below).
Less wind means less fire spread, which gives fire crews a chance to deal with the fires.
But there is a problem.
As the upper-level ridge of high pressure moves inland (see forecast for Friday afternoon below), strong winds will push eastward down the eastern slopes of the Cascades
To illustrate, here is the surface wind gust prediction for Friday afternoon. Not good.
Such winds will rev up the Little Giant Fire, which is the most serious fire of concern at this point
Finally, there is a lot of talk about this fire event having to do with climate change. The Seattle Times and some current/past politicians have been particularly egregious about such claims.
Such claims are demonstrably false, and I will examine this issue in detail in a future blog.
The fires were initiated by lightning and arson, neither of which is connected to climate change
Winds were critical, and they have no connection with climate change.
Fuel moistures were near normal before the fires, so all the drought and low snowpack claims are irrelevant.
Very informative post! Thank you Cliff.
ReplyDeleteI hate the political power play they put out there. Their policies of "fixing" the climate do nothing to address the here and now. This is how you know it is a farse, they scream we need to act now to reduce carbon to stop this from happening spending billions, yet your science and many others have shown our small fingerprint will amount to nothing and now the billions are gone and nothing done to mitigate what we know true problem is. They know it will continue even if we were to go to zero carbon emmissisions, they just play on it to fund their pet projects and egos. So frustrating.
ReplyDeleteActually, a lot of the climate fuel change tax revenue goes to electric buses i saw. Those are extremely expensive if anybody knew the cost per mile of transit in Washington state their hair would stand on end, not the cost that rider paid You could buy everybody a new buick.
DeleteHi Cliff, could you elaborate on claims that the cold front that brought the winds which worsened the fires are connected with climate change. I have heard this claim several times in the last couple days. Thanks for your work!
ReplyDeleteA Spokane area photo of half-a-dozen chimneys with houses gone also showed the houses were in a pine forest. Two of the fires are located here.
ReplyDeleteOld Trails Fire area here: 47.724154, -117.470911
Autumn Lane Fire here: 47.792815, -117.590300
Probability of controlling and/or stopping a fire within all the fuel is near zero.
A man was arrested for starting the Old Trails fire. He has had much trouble with, well, search-up his name - - - Aaron F. Farinacci, 37.
Scientific American is also ascribing these fires to (and by means of) hot air:
ReplyDelete"The cause of the fires is still under investigation, but the gusty winds, dry air and high temperatures allowed them to spread at unprecedented rates for the area."
"Soil moisture in the Spokane region of eastern Washington was exceptionally low the weekend of Aug. 1-2, 2026, as the dark red areas of the map reflect. The map measures soil moisture down to 100 centimeters, about 40 inches."
ReplyDeletehttps://www.preventionweb.net/news/why-spokane-wildfires-became-so-catastrophic
Jerry..you are looking at the wrong thing. Vegetative moisture is what counts. Soil moisture is not the issue. Soil does not burn....cliff
DeleteOh c'mon, the article was great until the red text. I agree that smoke we are experiencing was not specifically instigated by climate change, but we are undeniably experiencing an increase in smoky days. August used to be the prime month of Seattle!
ReplyDeletethere are more smoky days. That does not mean climate change is the reason.
DeleteWhy are we expierencing more smoky days? Before 2017, I don't remember smoke being much of an issue around here. Since then, its been a regular summer occurance.
DeleteSo why is it so much smokier than 40 years ago?
DeleteLast year I posted this link authored by an amateur local historian about "smoke season" in Puget Sound during the late 1800's and early 1900's. Summer smoke in our area used to be far worse before climate change warming became an issue. There were several reasons for this as the author explains.
Deletehttps://www.gigharbornow.org/news/arts-entertainment/gig-harbor-now-and-then-history-of-wildfire-smoke-gig-harbor/
Thank you for providing this update. The Little Giant Fire has been astounding in how much difficult terrain it has successfully spread through, including crossing steep ridges and jumping over Lake Chelan. I truly hope fire crews are able to get a handle on this week before the next round of wind can give it an opportunity to spread further. The same goes for the Sinlahekin Fire near Tonasket, which seems to be spreading in all directions.
ReplyDeleteWhy are the forecasted westerlies more concerning than the current easterlies? Don’t the easterlies have a much lower humidity level which makes for much more aggressive fire growth? What am I missing here?
ReplyDeletestrong winds on the eastern slopes are nearly always associated with strong westerly flow. There are physical reasons why this is the case.
DeleteJust curious regarding your take that climate change isn’t causing this— do you mean this specific series of wildfires or wildfires in general? If it’s the latter, what’s your thinking regarding the information about climate change’s impact on wildfires from the Department of Ecology’s website?
ReplyDeletehttps://ecology.wa.gov/air-climate/responding-to-climate-change/wildfire-risks
The ecology site is not a good place to get climate change information. I am saying the climate change was not a significant contributor to these fires.
DeleteIs there a good forecast map for AQI over the coming week? Friday is looking like the best day for a hike, but would like to monitor upcoming conditions.
ReplyDelete@David: Try any of these for more than just AQI forecasts:
DeleteWindy.com
Pivotal Weather
NOAA GSL DESI