President Trump's Budget Plan Weakens U.S. Weather Prediction

When I read through President Trump's budget plan for NOAA and the National Weather Service, I was both disappointed and disturbed.   One would be hard pressed to come up with a plan that could more effectively undermine our nation's weather prediction capabilities.

And strangely, the proposed budget directly contradicts the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act just passed by the Republican-dominated Congress and SIGNED by President Trump.

Let me review some of the recommendations of the NOAA budget plan---you will not believe them.  

1.  "NOAA requests a reduction of $5,000,000 to slow the transition of advanced modeling research into operations for improved warnings and forecasts. "

The U.S. is behind in numerical weather prediction and Congress had provided funding to replace the aged GFS with a Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and other major improvements.  A five million dollar reduction will cripple the National Weather Service's ability to build the new modeling system and will also undermine improvements in hurricane forecasts.

2. "Terminate Investment in Mid-Range Weather Outlooks: NOAA requests a decrease of $5,000,000 to terminate all development, testing, and implementation of experimental products to extend operational weather outlooks, including temperature and precipitation outlooks, from 16 days to 30 days."

Perhaps one of the areas of greatest potential in weather prediction is extended skill into the subseasonal domain (2 weeks to a month).  Subseasonal prediction was the CENTERPIECE of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act noted above (which was pushed and supported by Republicans in Congress).
And now Trump's folks want to zero it out.   Just wacky.

3.  "NOAA requests a decrease of $11,000,000 to reduce or eliminate components of its Tsunami Research and Operational Warning program. ..Support for preparedness education, outreach, and innovation research will cease. This program change request is consistent with the elimination of the DART® moorings"

There is great concern about loss of life associated with tsunamis, particularly after hundreds of thousands of people died in the Indian Ocean event of 2004.   The West Coast of the U.S. is particularly vulnerable.   A key resource for tsunami prediction is the DART buoy system (see above), which can sense anomalous increases in water level.  Stunningly, the Trump plan would eliminate these buoys (which we have already invested in), putting American and other lives at risk.  Madness.

4. "Reduce Surface and Marine Observations: NOAA will reduce surface and marine observations by $25,989,000, including the National Mesonet Program, Weather and Ocean Platform, and the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. It also will reduce marine observations that inform forecasts and warnings as well as understanding of global environmental patterns, such as El Niño."

Talk about going blind.  This approach will savage the nation's observation system (such as the high density mesonet program) and end the buoy array over the Pacific, which helps us diagnose and predict El Nino and La Nina.

5. "Eliminate Arctic Research: NOAA requests decreases of $2,230,000 from Climate Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes and $3,770,000 from Regional Climate Data and Information. This reduction will terminate Arctic research focused on improvements to sea ice modeling and predictions that support the safety of fishermen, commercial shippers, cruise ships, and local communities."

One of the key deficiencies for weather and seasonal forecasting is poor understanding of changes in sea ice distribution and how to forecast them.   Trump's budget proposed to terminate all research in this area.  Unbelievable

6. "End Vortex-Southeast: NOAA requests a decrease of $5,000,000 to terminate Vortex-Southeast, a program used to detect, respond to, and warn against tornadoes in the Southeastern United States."

There is much we don't know about the origins and prediction of tornadoes and field programs like Vortex provide critical insights.  But Trump's folks want to terminate this important research program, which is surprising since tornadoes impact many red states.
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These are only a few of the outrageous, irrational cuts listed in the Trump NOAA budget plan.  The result of these and other cutbacks would be to set back U.S. weather prediction several years, giving up any chance of advancing our nation's weather prediction capabilities to state-of-the-science.  

The economic impact of poorer weather predictions would be large and negative.  Bizarrely,  this budget plan directly works against the recently passed Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, that was pushed by Republican leadership in Congress and signed by President Trump.

How can a President pushing to " Make American Great, Again" propose a budget that will "Make America's Weather Prediction Inferior, Again"?

Republican staffers in Congress have told me that Trump's budget is dead on arrival and that they will act to protect the nation's weather prediction capabilities.  Since the worst weather in the nation (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms) is found in red states, you would expect the Republicans to take weather forecasting seriously.   Most do.

And perhaps there is a silver lining to this situation. Might Trump's crazy budget inspire moderate Republicans and Democrats to work together to put together a rational budget plan for NOAA and other agencies?  One could hope.