As we get closer to the big transition, more powerful and higher-resolution modeling tools become available.
So what do they say?
Almost everyone will see some snowflakes, but for many in the lowlands, it will not add to much.
For the 36-h through 4 AM Saturday, the mountains will be hit hard by snow and NE Washington will get several inches as well. Nearly no snow near sea level.
In contrast, the snowfall during the next 24-h (through Sunday at 4 AM) starts to spread into the lowlands, with three main foci (below). One snow band extends westward across Bellingham and the San Juans. A weaker band is found just north of Everett and some snow is found over the higher elevations between Olympic and Portland.
Not much over eastern Washington for that period. Almost everyone in western Washington will see a few flakes in the air by this time.
Not satisfied? The subsequent 24 hours bring light snow over much of the region, particularly over the northern Washington coast.
Add it all up, and the total snowfall through Tuesday morning is impressive-looking (below)
Below is the predicted snow depth over the region on Tuesday morning. Not much over the Puget Sound lowlands. Sorry kids....no snow days this time for most of you. But skiers should be very happy.
Finally, let's not forget the cold.
This is going to be the coldest period of the year so far.
Here in Seattle, highs will only reach the mid-30s, and lows well down in the 20s. Cold enough to kill unprotected folks living outside.
Thanks for the detailed forecast, Cliff. When do you think we'll exit this cold pattern?
ReplyDeleteCliff - I’ve been reviewing the blogs and comments from early February 2019 and how the models under forecast the snow amounts in the lowlands while basically getting the lasting cold spell right. Are you seeing anything in this developing situation that looks similar to that beginning of “Snowmageddon 2019”?
ReplyDeleteMost importantly, do you have confidence that the WSDOT will stay ahead of this system with regard to pretreating roads?
Thank you.
It appears that the ECMWF model is indicating somewhat more snowfall in the low lands?
ReplyDeleteHi Cliff! Thanks for giving so much detail. From what I can tell from the models you posted, it looks like the Olympic Peninsula will get the majority of snow in this system?
ReplyDeleteThanks. Your forecast matches my expectations!
ReplyDeleteI wonder whether any of the passes will have to be closed this weekend?
ReplyDeleteAny chance we can get a graphic for Oregon as well?
ReplyDeleteKBLI tied another record during January - this one for number of days with <50F daily max temps. The temperature never quite reached the 50F mark with a monthly high of 49F on 1/9. The other months in the POR which also failed to reach 50F were the Januaries of 1949, 1957 and 1985, the Februaries of 1956 and 2019, and the Decembers of 1951, 1983, 1984 and 2016.
ReplyDeleteWhy always show the UW-WRF? European Ensembles (EPS) and HRRR tend to do well...is WRF superior to those two models due to it being a western Washington tailored model?
ReplyDeleteMany reason...It is far higher resolution than the other models, which is very important here. It is optimized for the region. Many other reasons.
DeleteAwesome. Regionally optimized was my inclination. Thanks Cliff.
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