It is not in your imagination.
For much of the Pacific Northwest, this has been one of the coldest mid-winters in decades.
I have also plotted the trend over that thirty years (brown line). There is no trend.
Little change from global warming or global cooling during this period.
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Considering the temperature departure from normal over the last 14 days across Washington State (below), we see the general colder-than-normal pattern, with particularly chilly temperatures over the WA coast, near Bellingham, and over the NE slopes of the Cascades.
Why have we been this cold for so long you ask?
Because the large-scale atmospheric flow has been stuck in a very favorable pattern for NW cold, with an upper-level high-pressure ridge offshore, with troughs of lower heights/pressures on both sides.
To illustrate, take a look at the upper-level (500 hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) map for January 25. This pattern puts cold northerly flow over our region.
This configuration is called an omega block, because it looks like the Greek letter omega. It is generally a very stable pattern.
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Amazingly, the best global model (European Center) is forecasting the same pattern for the next five days (see below). I think I need to purchase some more thermal underwear.
In fact, the EC temperature forecast IS for colder than normal weather over our region during the next week (see below).
Unfortunately this is a repeated pattern: renewable energy like wind is least abundant when we need it the most. Thankfully, we have the dams. But we need to seriously think about a major expansion of nuclear.
I agree 100% nuclear energy or using ocean currents to make energy.
ReplyDelete"Little change from global warming or global cooling during this period." - That's evident WRT temperature within the narrow window of Jan 15-Feb 7, but one thing is different: Snowpack is a tad below average in most Washington basins. Just a tad... but it seems significant because it's a La Nina year. I recall during last year's low snowpack, you were very critical of communicators who failed to highlight that it was an El Nino winter, when low snowpacks are to be expected. You predicted that the snowpack would come back strong this winter, because La Nina was expected. It has not done so yet - does that deserve comment?
ReplyDeleteI understand that there's still plenty of winter left so this year could still turn out fine. But so far, has this particular El Nino-La Nina cycle delivered less mountain snowpack than we had hoped?
Wildfire season will be BAD. Half of normal snow pack.
DeleteHarrison....you can not say that. And it is COMPLETELY untrue that the state snowpack is half normal....more like 80%. No reason to expect a bad wildfire season. ..cliff
DeleteA light snowpack may on average presage a more active fire season in Eastern Washington but is not as important a factor as what happens in the spring and summer months. The 1970 fire season saw lots of fires and acres burned yet the preceding winter had a near normal snowpack at all elevations. It was the very dry spring and summer of that year along with several dry lightning storms that produced the large loss. The winter of 1976-77 saw one of the lowest snow packs of record, yet the 1977 summer was not especially active fire-wise compared to other summer fire seasons. The severity of the fire season west of the Cascades will likely be determined mainly by the presence or absence of east wind periods.
Delete"Wildfire season will be BAD. Half of normal snow pack"
DeleteA far more important factor on whether or not the wildfire season will be bad is rainfall in the Spring months including June and early July. If we get a dry spring and early summer then yes it could be bad. In British Columbia, the Forest service says rainfall in the month of June is probably the most important factor as to whether or not the wildfire season will be bad. A dry and hot June followed by a typical July and August, can often mean a bad wildfire season for fire danger. How bad it actually gets in terms of fires depends a lot also on lightning and human carelessness.
But a wet June and perhaps a wet early july usually means the wildfire season won't be that bad. The snow pack in early February is not a good indicator of the wildfire season many months away.
Scott8 I agree that snowpack in early February is not a good predictor of the wildfire season. Also, the current snowpack is only slightly below normal. Still plenty of time to turn it around.
DeleteJerry, https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/11/a-pleasant-no-drama-thanksgiving.html?m=1, Cliff reported back in November than the la Nina was dying for this year
Deletehttps://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/11/a-pleasant-no-drama-thanksgiving.html?m=1, Cliff reported back in November that the la Nina was dying
DeleteDouglas, I've heard from other sources that La Nina was still sputtering along, but weakly. Either way, it is consistent with the well-documented 70-year trend toward lower multi-year snowpacks in the PNW. Our dry years are becoming drier and more frequent, and our snowy years are becoming more meh, on average.
DeleteJerry. ..it is NOT true that our dry years are getting drier. I just confirmed that looking at the data....cliff
DeleteMy apologies Cliff, I should have said low-snow years are getting lower and more frequent. You're correct that there hasn't been much change in precipitation, but more of it is falling as rain, resulting lower snowpacks on average.
DeleteI'll take this type of "cold spell" over the last few years any day. Though this may be the coldest stretch in Seattle over 30 years...I would note, Cliff, that we have thawed out every day and not held sustained freezing temps. This daily thawing into the high 30s and low 40s has been a real life saver for garden plants, who had to endure several days below freezing with no breaks the last few years.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see the chart for the same period for the previous 30 years. I bet there are at least several years considerably colder than this year.1969,1972,1979,1985,1989 ,in particular.
ReplyDeleteThat was my first thought too. Does the same lack of trend appear if the timescale is extended beyond thirty years?
Delete30 years encompasses the period of strongest global warming and when we were in a similar PDO cycle. The fact there is no warming is meaningful
DeleteIn what respect is the lack of winter warming shown here meaningful?
Delete"Interestingly, the temperature trend at Pasco is DOWN....cooling... over the last thirty years. You won't see that mentioned in certain local media outlets.😊"
Are you suggesting global warming is less of a concern than others believe it to be?
The lows this year (and recent years) have been brutal, in the teens and worse, and this isn't high elevation, under 1000 ft, but inland. I don't know how the exhibit maps are generated, but lows have been: Feb 1 (snowing) 31.5 F, Feb 2 (snowing) 24.4 F, Feb 3 (snowing) 19.4 F, Feb 4 (some midday snow) 15.8 F, Feb 5 (clear) 11.3 F, Feb 6 (snow) 21.0 F, Feb 7 (clear) 9.3 F (!). When the clouds roll back in, "blanket" between us and the Universe, it warms a bit but not much: last night, Feb 8 (clouds) 23.5 F. Most recent years have been very cold too - even worse at times. "Just sharing" - it's fascinating to observe.
ReplyDeleteI would note we haven’t had a hard enough freeze to safely ice skate our golf course pond here in Port Townsend for several years—2017 I’m guessing based on that first chart. For many years, we used to be able to skate there every 2-3 years pretty regularly. (The police did interrupt a couple of those years, but there were other ponds.) I would say the chart is useful but doesn’t reflect all aspects of “it was a cold winter”. Also I note the energy use/energy demand chart indicates we’d be just fine even with all electric cars in this state if we didn’t ship all that power to other states. Nuclear and baseline are almost the same—though it strikes me as odd that the demand line is so flat, I’d expect rise and fall during the day. I may not be understanding what that chart really shows . . .
ReplyDelete"Nuclear and baseline are almost the same"
DeleteAre you looking at fossil/biomass
Red is Load.
This reminds me of Connecticut winters. Sunny cold and dry. I think that when the jet stream moves north we'll have wet weather for a couple months. I only hope it'll be as sunny as this in May and June. This la Nina is a joke , so far.
ReplyDeleteCliff, you need to carry a pruning saw on youy bike so you can clear those trails.
ReplyDeleteWhile there isn’t much trend in average temperature during the 1995 - 2025 period at KSEA for each of the 1/15 - 2/7 sub-periods therein, it’s worth noting that 8 of KSEA’s top-10 warmest 1/15 - 2/7 periods have occurred during the 1995 - 2025 portion of the POR; only 1978 and 1992 are not represented. The average year of the top-10 warmest 1/15 - 2/7 periods at this location is 2004.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the entire POR (1/1/1945 - present), on the other hand, shows a very different picture. The top-10 coldest 1/15 - 2/7 periods during each year of the POR have an average year of occurrence of 1966. 1/15/2025 - 2/7/2025 does rank among those top-10 coldest such periods but only at #10 with the next most recent occurrence back in 1989 (#7). The other 8 out of those top-10 coldest 1/15 - 2/7 periods all occurred prior to 1975.
It’s unfortunate that it’s not possible for me to include a similar graph with trendline in this comment as is shown in the blog, but for the entire POR, as this would clearly show that, overall, there’s been several degrees of warming during the 1/15 - 2/7 period at KSEA since 1945.
Compared with KBLI and KOLM, there’s been more warming at KSEA since the 1940s for the 1/15 - 2/7 period (by ~1 - 2 degrees F), which is probably due to increased urbanization at KSEA relative to the other two locations. However, the same overall trend of several degrees of warming for this particular 24-day midwinter sub-period is obvious at all three sites when plotted with trendline. It’s also worth noting, for the purpose of comparing between locations, that the 1/15/2025 - 2/7/2025 midwinter sub-period occupies a similar place in the top-10 coldest such periods at KBLI (#9) and KOLM (#10) as at KSEA (#10).
For those wanting to know how to produce similar datasets as shown in the post on their own, I recommend using https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/.
Why isn't Cliff looking at a 60-year trend, or looking at thirty year running averages? Climate is textbook essentially average weather over thirty years... so to me it seems nonsensical to try to find a trend out of noise in a 30 year context... boo.
ReplyDeleteCliff, I was 3 years old in 1949. We lived in Longview WA. My mom said it snowed almost every day in February and the Columbia River froze over. If that's true, 1949 must be in the record books.
ReplyDeleteJust outside the 30 year stats was the winter of 1993. A very similar winter to what we are seeing currently-extremely dry and cold. In fact, February of 1993 there was barely any precipitation for the entire month. That followed a very cold and dry January.
ReplyDeleteIt's almost as if it follows the 30 year decadal cycle of the ocean currents!
DeleteTonight in Chimacum (oly pen) it's been snowing and sleeting for hours. The ground is completely covered in a dusting of frozen precip. Yet, the weather apps are showing nothing on radar. It's very odd. (this is Monday 1am-5am)
ReplyDeleteCliff, I'm glad you mentioned global cooling. I don't know why more people don't talk about this?? I hear a lot about global all-time monthly and yearly heat records being broken, such as January 2025, but it seems the woke media must not report similar records for global cooling. Cliff, could you provide some examples of global all-time monthly and yearly cold records that have been broken in the past quarter century or so? Thanks again for bringing up global cooling!
ReplyDelete"The woke media".
DeleteSeriously?
There's a reason we "hear a lot about global all-time monthly and yearly heat records being broken" - it's a serious problem. Cliff doesn't like the term "existential", but many people see that as a perfectly valid description of the problems we're facing from global warming.