There will be some lowland snow in Western Washington

The model forecasts provided excellent over the past 24 hours, predicting the cooling and the localized snow in a Puget Sound convergence zone near Everett (see the radar image and model forecast this morning at 1 AM this morning).  Stunning.

The model forecast also suggested the potential for some snow at high elevations near Bellingham, and that occurred.

It is amazing how good the high-resolution models have become.  The same models nailed the Santa Ana winds during the recent wildfire event in LA, and the downslope winds that devastated Lahaina, Maui.  

This a very powerful technology that can save lives.  

Because of onshore flow at low levels, temperatures are marginal for lowland snow over western Washington AT THIS TIME.

Using aircraft observations coming in and out of Seattle, we know that the freezing level around 11 AM was about 1400 ft (see below).   Which means the snow level is about 400 ft.

In very heavy showers, the snow level (below which all the snow melts to rain) was able to reach sea level, which just happened here in Seattle (see below)

For local snow lovers, the problem is that the lower atmosphere is too warm a good snowfall because the air is coming over the relatively warm Pacific Ocean.  As shown below, the sea surface temperature off our coast is now about 10C--around 50 F.    A big problem if you like snow at sea level.

But something is going to happen tomorrow that will change things.  

A low-pressure center will move southward to a position off the northern Washington coast (10 PM Sunday shown).  In contrast, there is high pressure over the interior associated with very cold, Arctic air (red and white colors, blue is relatively warm).

As a result, there will be a surge of very cold air out of the Fraser River Valley and then over NW Washington.  Below are the forecast surface winds and temperatures a 4 PM Sunday and 10 AM Monday.

This has snow potential!

Now let's look at the accumulated snowfall (not snow depth) through 10 AM Monday.   

 Several inches around Bellingham and LOTS of snow on the NE side of the Olympics as the northeasterly Arctic air is lifted by the mountains.   Another band to the south where the Arctic air hits southwesterly flow coming around the southern Olympics.

But what you REALLY want to know is the predicted snow depth at this time (see below). 

 Not as impressive, but the Bellingham Area will enjoy a fairly good snow dump.  

They are used to it.  The lowlands south and east of the Olympics, where southerly air is forced upwards do well also.

Salting of some of the roads would be good and municipalities must get the homeless off the street or there will certainly be some unnecessary deaths from this event.

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Steve Pool Scholarship Fund

We are now 65% to our goal of the $100K needed to create a permanent undergraduate scholarship in honor of Seattle's most well-known weather communicator,  the late Steve Pool.   

Please consider making a contribution (tax-deductible) to this University of Washington fund.   And thanks to the hundreds of folks who have already contributed.

Here is the info:

A Steve Pool memorial undergraduate scholarship has been established in his honor (see below)

Once funded by contributions, this new undergraduate scholarship will provide financial assistance to promising Atmospheric Sciences students, fostering the training of the next generation of meteorologists and atmospheric scientists.

If you want to contribute or learn more about Steve, check out the webpage below.   Thanks so much....cliff

https://together.uw.edu/Campaign/steve-pool