A Guaranteed White Christmas (In the Mountains)

For lovers of Northwest snow, I have good news.  

Bountiful mountain snow is GUARANTEED before Christmas.

Yes, this means you will be able to hit the slopes on some of the higher elevation regional ski areas.

Consider the latest 120h forecast for accumulated snowfall from the UW weather prediction system (below).

A big snow dump in the mountains, with over 3 feet of snow at some locations.  

What about the highly skillful European Center model snow forecast for the same period? (see below)

Same story!  Lots of mountain snow.

I know what you are thinking.  

Can we trust these snowy predictions?

Good question.  To evaluate their reliability, let's look at the NOAA ensemble of many forecasts for snow at Stampede Pass in the central WA Cascades (at about 4000 ft).

The individual forecasts are shown by the gray lines and their mean by the black line (below).

All the forecasts have lots of snow, with a mean of about 40 inches by Christmas.

You can see why I offer a guarantee.   Lots of snow is a sure thing.

So get your skis and snowshoes out.  There will be plenty of snow at the high-elevation ski areas.

Guaranteed.