The Incoming System

 I wanted to provide a brief update on the incoming system.

A strong front is approaching, which will bring modest winds and substantial mountain precipitation...but nothing like we endured last week.

The latest forecast precipitation totals through 4 PM Monday is for "only" 3-5 inches in the Olympics and northern Cascades.

That will drive some of the local rivers up to moderate flow levels, but not nearly as high as last week.

Here is a sample for the Snoqualmie River,  where levels just reach major flood levels.  Also, a much lower peak this time.

Then there will be some winds associated with a strong cold front and the low pressure accompanying it. 

This forecast surface map for 7 AM Monday shows the  pressure pattern (solid lines), winds, and temperature (shading).  A strong front is offshore at this time, with a large north-south pressure difference over western Washington.  That means strong winds from the south.

By 4 PM, the front has moved in, and cooler air has swept into western WA.  A big pressure difference across the Cascades means strong winds descending into eastern WA.   Good for wind energy, bad for power outages around Ellensburg and Leavenworth.

Here in western WA, wind gusts should reach 40-50 mph, as illustrated by the Seattle WindWatch graphic for Seattle (below).

A few outages should be expected in western Washington--tens of thousands, but no more.

Finally, the big upcoming weather story will be SNOW.   Lots of it in the mountains, as illustrated by totals through next Sunday (below).