Also, as per the HRRR and UW WRF modeling systems, heavy precipitation has exploded in northern Oregon this afternoon and is moving towards Washington.
Here is the latest radar (3:54 PM)...you can see the strong echoes, with reds indicating torrential rain and hail.
What I am trying to expose you to is state-of-the-art forecasting in which information is frequently updated using modern rapid-update modeling systems. So what does the NOAA HRRR system indicate for the next 12 hours?
At 6 PM, the heavy line of showers is crossing the border.
This is not an end of the world event. The ground is dry and can soak a lot up. The rivers are low and can handle the precipitation. But it is educational to see how far weather prediction has come and the great discrepancy between what meteorologists know and what many media outlets provide.
Announcement: My Public Lecture Series on NW Weather
I am giving a five-lecture evening short course: "Reading the Northwest Sky: Understanding Our Weather and Climate"
October 1, October 22, November 5, November 26, December 3
Kane Hall: University of Washington
Co-Presented by University of Washington Alumni Association and Seattle Public Lectures.
If anyone is interested, more information here.
Thanks for this! Your 11 pm heavy-rain prediction means I'll stay at work in Bellevue until 6:10, as usual. :-)
ReplyDeleteImpressive modeling. Why are we getting such unusually intense thunderstorm activity for our area?
ReplyDeletePeter M
I think you mean AM a few times you said PM
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update! Excited for some long awaited rain!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update! I will be visiting the blog more often!
ReplyDeleteWell, this is sure better than the NOAA forecast which has, and still is, a total bust for Anacortes and the San Juans. NOAA still showing 100% chance of rain, with 0.17 inches in the next six hours, at 5 PM. Meanwhile no rain since about 8:30 AM with a very nice partly sunny day. The rowing club enjoyed a pleasant dry row in Fidalgo Bay in the afternoon. Only so much planning you should do based on weather forecasts.
ReplyDeleteDowntown Shelton just got pummeled by lightening strikes.. Several houses and an elementary school hit. One man near the school that got hit said his feet were "on fire" and there were burn marks on his knees.
ReplyDeleteOne strike caused a tree to fall into an apartment building and get embedded in the second floor. The fire department had to put out several structure and tree fires. A hay bale fire was reported on Skokomish Valley road.
The fire department chased the high school football team off the field.
It was VERY intense for about half an hour.
The storm seemed to have moved north.. maybe up on the Hood Canal now.
Oh yeah, there was some rain too, but nothing too bad by Shelton standards.. just the usual storm drains overflowing..
I am watching the UW radar viewer in awe. I have never seen such a beautiful cyclonic rotating front. The way it is moving almost reminds me of a derecho. Can you speak to any similarities (or not) between this front and a derecho?
ReplyDeleteWhat time do the lectures begin? How long are they? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteNow this is some "pull up a chair" weather!
ReplyDeleteLightning and thunder in Newcastle started at 10pm with rain starting 5-10 minutes later. I hope my gutters can keep up!
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