April 30, 2021

How Far Into The Future Can We Predict the Weather? My New Podcast Discusses That and the Weekend Forecast.

 I am often asked about how far into the future weather prediction is possible 

My podcast (link below) reveals the answer and also provides a relatively optimistic weekend forecast.

And don't forget the Northwest Weather Workshop tomorrow morning!  

Three hours of local weather and climate talks, with time for questions. And it will end with a spectacular video by Greg Johnson of Skunk Bay Weather.  More information below.  Please register if you want to attend.  It will be completely online.

Finally, for rainshadow fans, check out the visible satellite image this morning.  You see the clearing northeast of the Olympics?  A good example of the Olympic rainshadow.

Compare the cams at Seqium and Seattle below--both take at the same time.  A classic.

Here is my podcast:

Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service (see below)

You can stream my podcast from your favorite services:


The Northwest Weather Workshop, the annual gathering to talk about Northwest weather, climate, and major meteorological events, will take place on May 1, 2021. This year we will have a special session on the meteorology of the September 2020 regional wildfires. The meeting will be online. More information, the agenda, and registration information is found here: https://atmos.uw.edu/pnww/


  1. If we run weather models models backwards, how far back do they match the actual observed weather?

  2. It's really hard to get pinpoint accuracy when we're dealing with longer timeframes, but I'm actually impressed at the ability of the 10-15 day models to pick up on trends, especially out near the end of the forecast window. Case in point: the recent stretch of "summer April" was something the models were picking up on from over a week out, they just couldn't agree on the specifics like temperature or how long the ridge of high pressure would remain in place.


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